Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, September 7, 2020—Iran is on the brink of a possible unexpected socio-political outburst in upcoming months, according to many Iranian officials who in recent months have warned for the explosive state of the Iranian society. While some politicians in the west are seeking a new round of negotiations with the mullahs ruling in Iran, the regime is neither stable nor has any future in Iran.
An Iranian regime analyst, Hassan Biadi, expressed the regime’s fear of new uprisings and said to the state-run website Entekhab on August 30: “Until late December, there is a possibility of unexpected socio-political events. Due to government mismanagement, the people do not believe in any political current and are unsatisfied and previous talks have not been effective. Therefore, the analysis of existing problems should be fair.”
The state-run daily Mardom Salari wrote on August 31: “The way out of an impasse is usually using aggressive instruments… protest movements of December 2017 and November 2019 and wrong confrontation of it was not a good example. Obviously, violent movements could have very negative consequences.”
“The current situation of the Iranian society is intolerable, and every day the people distance themeselve more from the establishment. The situation is very fragile, and we cannot sit and watch the establishment die,” said Hashem Harrisi, member of the Majlis (parliament) on June 29.
In an interview with the state-run daily Setareh Sobh on August 1, an Iranian regime sociologist Amanollah Gharayi Moghadam, said: “60 million of the country’s 80 million population need assistance for the basic livelihoods, and this figure is before the coronavirus crisis. At this point, we have 7 million unemployed youths… High prices and inflation are astronomical. As a result, we must expect social protests. What I refer to is what happened in December 2017 and November 2019. If the establishment fails to handle people’s despair regarding economic problems, we must wait for the consequences and other events. This shows that a danger is lying in ambush.”
Elsewhere in his remarks, Gharayi Moghadam said: “During events of December 2017 and November 2019, about 80 to 100 cities whose names were heard for the first time revolted. Also, today such social and nationwide revolts are predicted. Today we have about 13-14 million who live on the outskirts of cities and have nothing to lose. The previous era is over, and a part of the population is starving today.”
On May 27, following a protest in Khuzestan’s Gheyzanieh county, the state-run daily Resalat wrote: “The people of Khuzestan are fed up with our actions. We distance the people from the establishment. There’s only need for a simple excuse, then the match will set fire to the powder keg and everything will come to an end.”
The fierce atmosphere that is raging across the country has terrified the ruling mullahs. One of the regime’s political analysts warned about the dire situation, especially the widening gap between the poor and the small minority living in mythical palaces, and said: “This hatred is concentrating… We can’t do wrong things all the time and ask the people to bear… The Shah’s mansion is nothing compared to what these people are building. One day, the poor will set fire to these buildings.”
On August 11, an article in Asr-e Iran portrayed the grave concerns escalating among regime officials about the explosive nature of Iran’s society, especially the youth. “The ammonium nitrate stockpiled in Beirut’s customs was gathering dust for years in Warehouse 12 and no one was paying any attention to it. Many had even forgotten that a 2,750-ton bomb was stationed right next to them and would pass by carelessly day after day,” the piece wrote. “Now this is very similar to our story and the large warehouse in Iran that may explode at any moment and level whatever there is in a matter of seconds. Continuing the status quo will transform dissent into protests, and the protesters, with the passage of time and the arrival of ripe circumstances, will have the ability to evolve into ‘overthrowers.’ The nitrate of dissent may explode at any time…”
The November 2019 nationwide protests, which began after regime suddenly imposed 300-percent hike on the price of gasoline. The protests 1,500 protesters killed by security forces.
The state-run daily Ebtekar, affiliated to the Iranian regime’s President, Hassan Rouhani, expressed its concern about the recurrence of the November 2019 nationwide protests and wrote on September 6:
“It seems that for various reasons, Hassan Rouhani is distancing himself from the people and society. But he and his advisors do not mention that this could be the end of people’s trust toward the establishment. They do not realize what consequences this behavior could have. It is worth noting that the president’s advisors who are well-experienced intelligence men to review what has happened since November 2019 until today in the society.”
The regime is incapable of reform
Today Iran is plagued with poverty, repression, and the coronavirus pandemic. Socio-economic gaps have never been wider. The regime’s suppressive machine does not stop for a moment in protecting the mullahs’ religious fascist regime and its Judiciary has been handing down a barrage of death sentences, including a double execution to wrestlng champion Navid Afkari and long prison sentences to his brothers, which has shocked and outraged not only the people of Iran but the entire world.
Meanwhile, in their protests, the people of Iran have left no doubt that the solution for all problems lies in the overthrow of the mullahs’ religious dictatorship. They target all the manifestations of the mullahs’ rule. They have felt with their flesh and blood that the regime is incapable of reform and it must be overthrown in its entirety.