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Iran: Sociologist warns of explosive social conditions

Iranian regime sociologist Amanollah Gharayi Moghadam warns about the explosive state of the Iranian society and the possibility of social uprisings.
Iranian regime sociologist Amanollah Gharayi Moghadam warns about the explosive state of the Iranian society and the possibility of social uprisings.

Reporting by PMOI/MEK

Iran, August 2, 2020—Iranian regime insiders and experts continue to warn about the social consequences of mishandling the coronavirus crisis and economic woes. An Iranian regime sociologist warned about the explosive situation of the society and the possibility of a new “uncontrollable” uprising.

In an interview on August 1 with the state-run daily Setareh Sobh, Amanollah Gharayi Moghadam said: “For years, I’ve been speaking as the ideation room of the police. I have worked for many years as a sociologist in the Judiciary… so I’m not bluffing. My remarks are based on a scientific theory. The youths are fed up. They are waiting. It was just two weeks ago when social media users tweeted 12 million times the hashtag ‘do not execute’ in protest to death sentences for three youths arrested during the November 2019 events. We must think of our youths. We must do something, otherwise unfortunately the danger is predicted. If this match is lit, putting down the fire will be very difficult.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Gharayi Moghadam said: “60 million of the country’s 80 million population need assistance for the basic livelihoods, and this figure is before the coronavirus crisis. At this point we have 7 million unemployed youths… High prices and inflation are astronomical. As a result, we must wait for the social protests. What I mean by this is what happened in December 2017 and November 2019. If the establishment fails to handle people’s despair regarding economic problems, we must wait for the consequences and other events… the protests of the workers of Haft-Tappeh Sugar Cane Factory and the Heavy Equipment Production company (HEPCO) is the result of an upset and worried society. This shows that a danger is lying in ambush.”

“Another threat… are the southern and deprived city movements… the society is upset and any moment there is a threat of revolt of the society… revolt means movement from within the society, with riots within. During events of December 2017 and November 2019, about 80 to 100 cities whose names were heard for the first time revolted. Also, today such social and nationwide revolts are predicted. Today we have about 13-14 million who live on the outskirts of cities and have nothing to lose. The previous era is over, and a part of the population is starving today.”


High inflation and economic crisis in Iran turned swiftly into a wave of anti-government protests in December 2017, targeting the whole theocracy of Iran. The protests continued in 2018 through many nationwide strikes in the months that followed.

On November 2019 Iran witnessed second huge nationwide uprising in less than two years. The protests began in November after regime suddenly imposed 300-percent hike on the price of gasoline. During the protests, the ministry of communications shut down Iran’s access across the country to resort the most bloody and coldblooded crackdown in the past 40 years away from the eyes of the world.

According to information obtained by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), during the first few days of the uprising, security forces killed at least 1,500 protesters and made more than 12,000 arrests. These numbers were later confirmed by Reuters.

The MEK published the names of 765 of these killed civilians and has sent it to human rights organizations and international institutions and called for an investigation into these undeniable facts. The Iranian opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has consistently emphasized that the November 2019 massacre was a crime against humanity and that the regime’s leaders and officials must be prosecuted and held accountable by an international tribunal. 

However, despite the regime’s brutal crackdown on the uprisings, the people of Iran continue their protests and call for regime change. The desire to overthrow the mullahs’ regime manifested itself again in a series of protests in January, after regime officials admitted to having shot down a Ukrainian passenger plan in Tehran’s airspace. More recently, protesters in Behbehan, Khuzestan province, chanted “death to dictator,” a reference to regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei.