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Iran’s regime spirals into chaos as crises escalate

Protests of university students in Tehran (credit:Reuters)
Protests of university students in Tehran (credit:Reuters)

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran, January 15, 2020—Recent remarks made by Iranian officials defy the regime's norms. These remarks and statements only hint at the very chaotic state of a regime that is nearing its inevitable collapse at an accelerating pace and is trying hard to prevent it.

An escalating wave of crises are hitting the regime from every direction, and like a boulder that is eventually washed away by the current of the river, they’re dislodging it and pushing it toward its overthrow.


Controversial remarks by Iranian officials

On Tuesday, Hassan Rouhani, the president of the Iranian regime, made unprecedented remarks about the shooting of a passenger plane by Iran’s military forces. “The people’s question is, from the time the reason for the incident became clear until its declaration, did it take too long?” Rouhani said in his remarks, adding, “I want the authorities to explain to the people.”

Who does Rouhani expect to explain to the people? Wasn’t he aware of the disaster from the first moment? Interestingly, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, said in a press conference on January 11 that he had informed all senior officials shortly after the incident. Does “senior officials” imply anyone other than Rouhani and regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei?

It seems that the regime’s propaganda apparatus is strictly focused on saving Khamenei from this scandal. But the paradox is in that the disaster is so scandalous that every official is also trying to extricate himself from the mess. Therefore, advertently or inadvertently, every official statement ends up incriminating Khamenei himself.

In his press conference, Ali Rabiei, the spokesperson of the Rouhani government, lied so much that even the regime’s own state-run media criticized him. One of the reporters said, “In my opinion, you’re still not transparent with the people. If you’re transparent and you’re not trying to practice expediency, please explain why the officials you queried did not provide you with correct information? Who were these officials?”

In his remarks to the Majlis (parliament), Hossein Salami, the commander of the IRGC, outrageously claimed that the honesty of regime officials is unrivaled across the globe.

Even more outrageous were the remarks of Ali Larijani, speaker of the Majlis, who said, “The statements of Mr. Salami were very precise… We thank you and are grateful that you humbly accepted this mistake and apologized to the people.”

The remarks were so ridiculous that even the regime’s own officials couldn’t stomach them. Abbas Abdi, a known former agent of the regime’s judiciary, said, “The issue goes beyond a simple lie and concealment. Concealing and lying to the people in such an issue is planned and chosen behavior.”


The root of the chaos

To get to the root of all the ongoing chaos in the Iranian regime, one only needs to briefly look at the events in the past few weeks.

  • January 3: Iran’s terrorist in chief Qasem Soleimani is killed in a U.S. drone strike.
  • January 8: The regime launches a supposed retaliatory strike on U.S. bases in Iraq. But it later becomes evident that the regime had informed the Iraqis to avoid causing casualties and further triggering the wrath of the U.S. The attack had minimal damage and no casualties, further highlighting the regime’s weakening state in waging war in the region.
  • January 8: On the same day Iran launched missiles against Iraq, the IRGC shot down a civilian airplane flying from Tehran to Kyiv, Ukraine, killing all 176 passengers and crew members.
  • The U.S. Department of Defense declared it has undeniable evidence that the Iranian regime had shot down the airplane.
  • January 10: The U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on the Iranian regime, including several top officials.
  • January 11: The Iranian regime’s military admits to having targeted and destroyed the Ukrainian passenger plane.
  • January 11: On the evening of the same day, protests erupt in several Iranian cities. Protesters chant slogans directly targeting Khamenei and calling for the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
  • January 12: A memo by the U.S. State Department preventing American diplomats from meeting Iranian dissidents is revoked. “Posts should welcome opportunities to meet with and learn from members of the Iranian diaspora community,” a new directive reads.
  • January 14: European powers trigger the dispute mechanism of the Iran nuclear deal in response to the regime’s continued negligence of its commitments under the pact.

Parallel to these events, protests continue in Iraq and Lebanon, where demonstrators are calling for the ouster of the regime and its proxies from their countries. The continuation of the Iranian uprising and the bolder calls for the overthrow of the mullahs and the IRGC shows that every new crisis will make the situation worse for the regime.