Last week, Iran’s regime carried out an attack against a ship in the Indian Ocean, after which a coalition was formed against its proxy forces in the Red Sea, sending a warning to the regime. This latest development has triggered fearful and reactions from the regime. Meanwhile, the regime is trying to save face by maintaining a defiant pose.
On December 23, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the regime’s foreign minister, said, “We have explicitly told the Americans that these groups and Yemen act based on their own assessments and interests, and we have never ordered them to take action.”
Of course, the regime’s fear and concern about the outcome of its warmongering policies contradict the actions and rhetoric of the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and representatives of Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei in their Friday prayers, who have been making fiery speeches since the early days of the war in Gaza. They have repeatedly tried to showcase their power and stated that proxy actors in the region, with their weapons, capabilities, and actions, are dependent on the Iranian regime. On the other hand, the rival faction within the regime, in their analysis and interpretations of the balance of power in the region and the social and political situation in Iran, warn of the “terrifying” consequences of warmongering policies for the integrity of the regime.
On December 5, the state-run Didar news outlet quoted Ahmad Zeydabadi, the journalist and political analyst, as saying, “They want to implement the ‘Gaza minus Hamas’ slogan at any cost. Well, if Hamas is removed from the equation, then they will turn their attention to Iran. In my opinion, as long as the war continues there, the policy is to prevent a widespread war and Iran’s involvement. The consequences of a widespread war are indeed very severe… But after that, there will be an extraordinary diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran.”
Zeydabadi said the regime has no chance of escaping the crisis of warmongering, a reflection of how part of the regime’s rank and file think. Because after Hamas, it will be the turn of the “head of the snake,” which is the regime. And if the regime does not become a post-war target, it will be subjected to “extraordinary diplomatic and economic pressures,” according to Zeydabadi. Because the developments in the Middle East cannot be examined in isolation from each other. That’s why he adds, “The developments in the Middle East are like puzzle pieces that are thrown into the air and suddenly come together in a certain situation… Then we will take a picture, and that picture will be unsettling for Iranian officials.”
He then describes the “unsettling picture” as follows: “The result of this line of action is the ’emergence of a Palestinian state… and then intense pressure will be exerted on Hezbollah and Iran, which will be greatly intensified. With the internal situation that we have, this level of dissatisfaction [by the people], this level of feeling under pressure, if added to it, can greatly exacerbate the situation.”
Zeydabadi, while expressing concern about the explosive conditions in society and acknowledging that “we are caught in a bad historical situation,” said, “If the regime shows its inability to address the prevailing societal grievances, we will face conditions much more terrifying than the Mongol invasion of Iran. In such a situation, there will be no security. Unfortunately, everyone understands that such a thing is possible, but no one takes it seriously.”