Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Jan. 26, 2019 – In his speech on January 14, 2019 in Gonbad-e Kavus (Golestan Province), Iranian regime president Hassan Rouhani said, “We are facing difficult days…. We have plenty of problems.”
What are these problems and difficulties that not only Rouhani, but also a whole spectrum of the regime’s officials, from Rouhani’s cabinet members to Friday Prayer Leaders and representatives of Khamenei talk about? To provide a tangible picture of the extent of these difficulties, let us use the crippling economic sanctions as a point of reference. This is the same Rouhani who, hours after U.S. renewed sanctions against the Iranian regime, said there was no problem and “Iran would proudly circumvent the US sanctions.” (Tasnim News Agency, November 5, 2018)
What are these difficulties and problems?
Two factors, one domestic and the other international, have continued to gain momentum, despite the regime’s efforts and expectations; the uprising and the sanctions.
Referring to the uprising in December 2018, and January 2019, Ali Rabie, Deputy Intelligence Minister of the Iranian regime and a former Labor Minister said:
“I consider the Dec/Jan 2018 incident was … was an unprecedented experience in social unrests we had not seen before in the past four decades… If there is a leak anywhere in the dam, there will be a devastating catastrophe and floods.”
“The butterfly effect resulted in protests to spread to 160 cities …In response to questions about will these protests and events be repeated, and can they play the role of an alarm siren, my answer is yes.”
On August 8, 2018, after eight months of failure by the regime in suppressing the demonstrations and the resistance, Rabie warned the regime’s Majlis (Parliament): “Given my forty years of experience with crises, I know we have very difficult days ahead.”
The second element of devastating impact on the regime is the continuation of economic sanctions. The regime was more than hopeful to break or ease the sanctions. However, its international behavior, including terrorist activities on European soil, backfired. Instead of an intimidated Europe as the regime hoped for, now it is facing new sanctions by European countries too.
Who does the regime fear?
It does not take a lot of research to find the answer to this question.
Everyone in the regime, from supreme leader Ali Khamenei to Rouhani, and from foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to Rabie have explicitly mentioned MEK as the “dangerous enemy.”
On official Friday Prayers of January 25th alone, the word “Monafeghin” (the regime’s term to refer to the MEK) was used 10 times in addition to 50 times of usage of the word “enemy.”
On January 17, 2019, Alaeddin Borujerdi, Khamenei’s special envoy for regional war mongering policies, and a senior member of Majlis (parliament) and former chairman of the Commission on Security and Foreign Policy, was very clear in putting his observations into perspective. He said,” “[PMOI/MEK] is part of the American puzzle against the Islamic Republic in the Warsaw security conference. Recently, we have seen European countries take measures against the Islamic Republic under pressure from the U.S.”
He also warned against the relocation of members of PMOI/MEK to Albania and recent measures by European countries to counter the terrorist activities of the Iranian regime in their countries.
What is the regime’s solution?
Simply put, nothing. The main two worrying factors for the regime are becoming more and more effective. The regime has resorted to further domestic suppression and foreign terrorism.
Despite all economic crises, manifested in 1,000-trillion-rial budget deficit, Majlis has asked for a 300-trillion-rial increase in the military budget, while Rouhani’s government had already added 20% to the budget of the Revolutionary Guards.
However, the point is that the uprising did not start in a free or even semi-free situation to cease by suppression. It was ignited under the most brutal repression. There is no sign of the regime being able to contain the unrest and demonstrations, or the activities of Iranian resistance units. The sanctions show no signs of relief either.
Rouhani was right. The regime is in deep trouble.
