Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, February 14, 2021—Sunday saw another round of widespread protests by pensioners, who held rallies in 18 cities, including Tehran, Karaj, Neyshabur, Shiraz, Ahvaz, Ilam, Khorram Abad, Yazd, Isfahan, Shush, Kermanshah, Qazvin, and Arak. The protesters were chanting, “Enough with the tyranny, our tables are empty,” “Inflation and high prices, what do you have to say [Hassan] Rouhani?” “We will not stop until we get back our rights,” “We will only get our rights on the streets,” and “The poverty line is 120 million rials, our income is 30 million rials.”
The protesters also made it clear that they reject the regime’s blatant lies about the country’s economic problems being the result of U.S. sanctions or international pressure. “Our enemy is right here, they’re lying that it is the U.S.,” the protesters were chanting in their protests.
At the Majlis (parliament) where the Tehran rally was held, teachers and small investors who were also demonstrating for their grievances joined the pensioners in their protests.
This is the fourth nationwide organized protest of the pensioners in less than two months. At the same time, members of other impoverished communities across Iran have been holding similar rallies in different cities.
While the regime has a history of cracking down on organized protests with severe brutality, there was no shortage of participants in Sunday’s rallies. This shows that the people are becoming increasingly bold in face of the regime’s repressive apparatus, and at the same time, the regime is becoming less and less efficient in its capacity to quell protests. This is a true manifestation of a new balance between the regime and the people.
As MP Mohammad Esmaili warned on January 31, “The knife has reached the people’s bones.” Their lives ravaged and driven into misery, the people have nothing to lose and no longer fear the regime’s repressive forces. On the other hand, the regime fears that its previous use of excessive force will only fan the fires of hatred and outrage among the Iranian people. Therefore, it is struggling to find the balance between preventing protests and avoiding sparking further uprisings.
The explosive state of the Iranian society
During the November 2019 protests, the largest nationwide uprising since the 1979 revolution, demonstrations spread to nearly 200 cities in the span of a few days. After security forces opened fire on protesters, the demonstrators burned and demolished 731 state-run banks, 140 government buildings, and hundreds of vehicles belonging to the regime’s repressive apparatus. The regime was only to regain control of the situation by intensifying the crackdown and killing more than 1,500 unarmed protesters.
But despite the heavy presence of security forces in major cities in the weeks and months that followed the November protests, less than two months later, in January, people took to the streets again to protest the regime’s shooting down of a civilian airliner and killing all 176 passengers on board. During these protests, demonstrators chanted, “Down with the mullahs’ rule,” “Death to the tyrant, whether it is the Shah or the Supreme Leader,” and they showed once again that the regime has not been able to quell the spirit of rebellion and change in the Iranian society.
The one thing that gave the regime a temporary reprieve from further protests was the coronavirus outbreak, which spread across Iran like wildfire in no small part due to the regime’s destructive policies and its lack of interest to protect the people against the virus. The regime used the Covid-19 pandemic as a tool and defense weapon against public outrage.
But the regime’s mishandling of the pandemic and the declining economic conditions during the outbreak has only added to the people hatred of the mullahs’ rule, to the point that the regime’s own officials and media warn of “an uncertain future in the post-coronavirus era.”
The unprecedented rise of prices and expansion of poverty in the past year has taken the society’s explosive potential to a level beyond what we witnessed in November 2019. On Sunday alone, several state-run media outlets warned of the consequences of the deteriorating economic conditions:
- Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): “In the past year, the prices of fundamental items such as meat have increased by 21 percent.”
- Kar va Kargar (Labor and worker): “The yearover-year for this month has increased by 52 percent.”
- Mardom Salari: “The poverty line for Tehran has reached 100 million rials, the price of good has had a growing trend, and the people’s purchasing power has decreased so much that they can’t provide their most basic needs.”
- Vatane Emrooz: “The price of 20 items, including beef and poultry, fruits and vegetables, beans, rice, and iron has increased by a factor of two to four. The prices of another 27 items have increased by 50-100 percent.”
- Mardom Salari: “The food poverty point for every person is 6.7 million rials. If you consider a threeperson family earning a minimum wage (between 15 and 20 million rials), many families are under the food poverty line.”
- Kar va Kargar: “The price of items in the livelihood basket such as bread, rice, shoes, shelter, and housing have increased by 76 percent.”
- IRNA: “The price of Pakistani Basmati rice has increased by 107 percent, Thai rice by 88 percent, Tarem rice by 40 percent, and Hashemi rice by 30 percent, in comparison to November 2019.”
- MP Mohammad Safari Malek Mian: “Our country is not in a good state and the conditions are worrying.”
Other outlets are acknowledging that, contrary to statements made by Rouhani and other regime officials, sanctions are not the root of Iran’s economic problems. On Sunday, the state-run Jahan-e Sanat wrote, “Even of all the sanctions are lifted and we can export oil at normal levels, the problems and challenges of the people will remain.” Jahan-e Sanat acknowledged that the root of Iran’s economic problems is “from within” and corruption has only “increased the intensity of the spread of economic illnesses.”
These are the conditions under which protests continue to happen daily. Now the question is no longer if there will be another nationwide protest like what we saw in November 2019. The question is, how much larger it will be. As Mardom Salari warned, “We will witness problems in the society, and chaos will engulf all classes of the society.”
