Syria, once considered the “35th province” of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary system, has now become a theater of strategic defeat for the regime.
To understand the importance and scope of this strategic loss, it is worth recalling a statement by Mehdi Taeb, Head of the Ammar Strategic Headquarters: “If the enemy attacks us intending to take Syria or Khuzestan, our priority should be to keep Syria because if we keep Syria, we can also reclaim Khuzestan. But if we lose Syria, we cannot even keep Tehran.” (source: Asr-e-Iran news website, February 16, 2012)
Taeb was the one who referred to Syria as the “35th province and a strategic province.”
The so-called “Shia Crescent” and “strategic depth” claimed by regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his allies are now facing collapse more than ever before after the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled by opposition forces and the people.
Terrorist Interventions with Astronomical Costs
The interventionist policies of Iran’s theocratic fascism in Syria have been focused from the outset on fully supporting Bashar al-Assad. Over the past years, credible reports indicate that Khamenei, through the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its commander Qassem Soleimani, spent at least $50 billion of Iran’s national resources to sustain Assad.
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the security commission of Majlis (parliament), inadvertently admitted to part of this expenditure.
On May 20, 2020, Asr-e-Iran news website quoted him as saying, “When I went to Syria, some said I caused expenses! But I repeat, we might have given $20 to $30 billion to Syria, and we need to get it back. The people’s money was spent there.”
These enormous sums flowed into Syria while the Iranian people struggled with deep economic hardship and poverty. Popular slogans during nationwide protests, such as “Leave Syria, think of us,” reflected profound dissatisfaction with this policy.
Resolution 2254 and Khamenei’s Obstruction
Nine years ago, UN Security Council Resolution 2254 was adopted as a solution to end the Syrian crisis. It aimed to facilitate a political transition and stop violence, but Iran’s regime and its proxy forces obstructed its implementation.
Using the deceptive banner of “defense of the Zainab Shrine (Zainab, granddaughter of the Islamic prophet Mohammad),” the clerical regime deployed IRGC Quds Force militias to bolster Assad. This terrorist intervention effectively disrupted Syria’s political transition process and nullified international efforts to end the war.
The End of a Fateful Gamble
As mentioned, the loss of the strategic depth of Iran’s theocratic system in Syria significantly weakens the regime’s regional influence network.
For years, Khamenei regarded Syria as the “tentpole of the resistance” and spared no expense to maintain it. However, today, his dream is turning into a nightmare.
Khamenei’s earlier remarks about Syria and its connection to preserving his theocratic system speak for themselves:
“If they [the regime’s fighters] had not resisted, the enemy would have entered the country, and we would have had to fight them here in Kermanshah, Hamadan, and other provinces.” (Source: Khamenei’s website, February 4, 2016)
“Those who go to Iraq or Syria and stand against these extremists in defense of the holy shrines are, in fact, defending their own cities.” (ibid, June 25, 2016)
The collapse of the Syrian regime, in addition to being a strategic failure, underscores the failure of the theocratic system’s regional policies and a major defeat for it.
Strategic Defeat in Syria and Its Consequences
The developments in Syria are clear signs of the collapse of the “strategic depth” and expansionist policies of Iran’s theocratic fascism. But their effects will not stop there.
As Mehdi Taeb had warned, with the loss of Syria, the regime will have a hard time holding Tehran against the Iranian people who, through organized resistance and a democratic revolution, will reclaim it from the tyrannical occupiers.