With two weeks having passed since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria, the strategic blow’s repercussions for the Iranian regime are now clearly visible in the rising dissenting voices within the regime.
Meanwhile, on December 12, regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, in his first reaction to the loss of his strategic depth in Syria, called any “demoralization of the public” a “crime” that should be prosecuted. His judiciary issued a statement to reinforce this threat, yet criticisms and sarcasm against Khamenei are becoming more open, explicit, and sharp by the day.
In this context, Khamenei’s claims and those of his affiliates, such as “We have not been defeated,” “We have not weakened,” and “Syrian youth will soon rise and reclaim Syria,” elicit nothing but ridicule, even within the regime.
On December 21, the newspaper Ham-Mihan wrote in an article titled “Consequences of Assad’s Fall for Iran”: “The fall of Bashar al-Assad is not only a significant event for Syria but also has ramifications across the Middle East. These consequences are felt more strongly in Iran than in any other country. Tehran’s sudden exit from Syria… is a strategic and military blow to Iran… Iran is in a defensive position, and its deterrence capability has been weakened… The ‘Resistance Axis’ can no longer fully provide deterrent power to Tehran.”
Also on December 21, another newspaper, Setareh Sobh, wrote an article titled “The Playing Field Has Changed; The Next 30 Days Are Dangerous,” which reads in part: “The reality is that the playing field for Iran has changed with Trump’s arrival, Putin’s quagmire in the Ukraine war, and Assad’s fall—previously Iran’s backyard. Global and regional conditions are not favorable to Iran.”
On the same day, the newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad wrote, “Regional trends indicate a weakening of Iran’s economic and political position. Thus, Tehran no longer has the capacity for influence and activity beyond regional developments, as it did in the past decade.”
Following Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria, Iranian state media have begun revisiting the heavy blows dealt to Khamenei’s strategic depth in Lebanon. They write about the shifting balance in the region to the regime’s disadvantage: “Lebanon has always been the barometer of the Middle East. The arrangement of forces and powers in the region manifests in miniature form in Lebanon. Given the overall weakening of Iran’s role and the ‘Resistance Axis’ in the region, it is natural for these conditions to be reflected in Lebanon as well” (Ham-Mihan, December 21).
Most explicit are the remarks of Hossein Taeb, the former head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization and advisor to the IRGC commander-in-chief, during a briefing for IRGC and Basij members. When one attendee asked, “Has the Resistance Front suffered serious damage due to Assad’s departure?” Taeb responded: “Certainly, with Assad’s departure, the Resistance Front has been harmed and has lost one of its allies. This is an undeniable reality. A significant event has occurred for Syria.”
The “undeniable reality that a significant event has occurred” does not apply just to Syria—but also for Iran and for Khamenei himself. This reality cannot be concealed through propaganda or silenced with threats.
Despite the regime’s pressures and threats, Abdolrahim Soleimani Ardastani, a member of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association, made remarks highlighting Khamenei’s egregious errors and the regime’s strategic failure: “A dictatorship oppresses its own people, and we intervene, calling it ‘Defenders of the Shrine’! The state has made a terrible mistake and must apologize to the people without trying to cover it up. Why should we have defended a brutal dictator?… These arguments about shifting the defensive line elsewhere to ensure safety are neither ethical, religious, nor legitimate! They are indefensible! The statements we hear have nothing to do with religion!” (Didar News, December 18).