From the beginning of the Persian year 1403 (starting in March 2024), it was evident that great calamities were about to befall the oppressed people of Iran. The emptiness of Ebrahim Raisi’s slogan of controlling inflation was evident on the empty tables of millions of deprived individuals who lacked even the most basic necessities. In the past two years, the prices of essential food items consumed by the lower classes of people have skyrocketed.
On April 1, 2024, The state-run Khabar Online news website wrote, “The price of meat has increased from 1.4 million rials to 5.52 million rials, a 290% increase! Chicken has gone from 290,000 rials to 870,000 rials, a 200% increase! Oil is now at 630,000 rials, a 270% increase! Rice has reached 1.06 million rials, a 113% increase! Onions are priced at 200,000 rials, an 185% increase! Tomatoes are at 620,000 rials, a 158% increase.”
However, other unpleasant news from regime media suggests that the severity and gravity of economic crises have increased further. The war waged by the ruling mafia gangs has exposed the sinister plans of conflicting parties, which have targeted the resources and wealth of the people.
On March 31, the state-run Etemad newspaper quoted politician Yasser Jabrayili, a former associate of Raisi, as saying, “The achievements of the fake approach have no benefit for the president, and he has taken action to solve his problems by raising the exchange rate to one million rials per dollar! Such achievements have been the same as previous methods. What caused concern is that Mr. Raisi’s government has no intention of changing course and officially speaks of a million-rial dollar rate.”
The country’s economic crises have exceeded the usual limits.
On March 27, the state-run Entekhab news website quoted economist Farshad Momeni, as saying, “Iran is a country with many crises, and these crises in the economic realm have gone beyond the usual limits. If its other crises in the cultural, social, political, and international domains are not greater than its economic crisis, they are certainly not less.”
The economy of Iran is suffering from absolute ignorance
It is not only Momeni who warns about this, but other economists have also sounded the alarm.
On March 30, the state-run Eghtesad 24 news website quoted university professor Mohammad Gholi Yousefi as saying, “To understand the reason behind this crisis-filled situation, we must emphasize that the economy has fallen into absolute ignorance… For this reason, hope among various segments of society has reached its minimum. The people of Iran have entered the year 1403 while in 1402 they faced the greatest threats to their livelihoods. The situation has become such that instead of aspiring to buy a house, they spend the year thinking about how to renew their property lease agreements. Important issues such as education, healthcare, and others are also being neglected due to the economic instability affecting the priorities of families.”
Complex and ambiguous outlook for the economy in 1403
Economist Ali Cheshmi considers this year as a year of continued structural instability. He points out the astronomical deficit of 4 quadrillion rials in the government’s budget, the deficit of approximately 4 quadrillion rials in four pension funds, and the government’s debt to the Social Security Fund, estimated at around 4 quadrillion rials by the Parliamentary Research Center. He also mentions the deficit in the targeted subsidies budget (approximately 2.7 quadrillion rials, according to the same center). Overall, these three deficits put pressure on banking resources in the current year.
On March 29, Eghtesad News website quoted him as saying, “For this reason, the country’s economy has fallen into the pitfalls of recession and inflation. The inflation rate, due to the increase in exchange rates at the end of 1402, will soon start a new upward trend and will continue in the early months of 1403…”
