One year after the Iranian regime instigated conflict in the region, the deceptive smokescreen is clearing, and the regime’s precarious position in the quagmire it has created is becoming increasingly evident. This situation is being highlighted by the regime’s own figures and media.
Mehdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Majlis (parliament) speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, discussed the risk of the regime’s complete defeat and the “painful and strategic blows” it has suffered. On October 12, in an interview with state television, he said: “Realism demands that we acknowledge the severity and pain of the blows the system has endured. We have suffered strategic setbacks. What happened to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is no minor issue!”
Mohammadi predicted an even worse outlook for the regime, stating: “We have entered a period of high tension, a time when more unexpected events will occur in the future.”
Mohammadi also revealed the weak morale among the regime’s forces, warning: “If we are not vigilant and lose our courage, we will be defeated. I say this plainly: we must be brave and not let fear overwhelm us!”
On the same day, the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization made a concerted effort to boost the morale of the demoralized Basij forces by publicizing Ghalibaf’s trip to Beirut.
Mashregh, a media outlet linked to the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, wrote: “The landing of an Iranian plane at Beirut airport, even amid Zionist bombardment, is noteworthy. As always, the Speaker of Parliament personally donned the captain’s uniform and piloted the flight to Lebanon. Upon arrival, Ghalibaf announced that he was carrying a special message from the Leader of the Revolution for Lebanese officials.”
Mashregh then took its unfounded claims a step further, adding: “The Speaker’s trip to Lebanon under Israeli artillery fire is not a standalone event but complements past developments. Previously, [foreign minister Abbas] Araghchi visited Beirut under similar conditions and broke the city’s siege. Now, Ghalibaf’s presence in the Dahiya completes Araghchi’s previous trip and message. In essence, Tehran has synchronized its regional maneuvers in both the field and diplomacy, creating a movement. These actions will shake all corners of the region!”
Shaking the region? Can these baseless claims make up for the regime’s fear, confusion, and exposure to “painful and strategic blows”?
The answer could be heard the next day (October 13) from the regime’s experts and media, who repeated the same points made by Ghalibaf’s advisor in different words.
The state-run newspaper Etemad wrote that this situation “is truly not in the regime’s interest, and the leadership must develop a plan to exit this state.” It then referenced the threat of escalating war caused by the regime’s aggressive actions, adding: “Let’s assume Israel dares to challenge the state… then everyone will be waiting for the regime’s response, and then Tel Aviv’s counter-response… common sense dictates that this cycle must stop somewhere!” because the principle is to “preserve the system and avoid damage to it at all costs” (October 13).
Fereydoun Majlesi, a diplomat and regime-affiliated expert, described the situation of the regime’s proxy groups as “declining,” adding that now “these groups (the regime’s proxies) are considering ways to escape from the unfavorable situation, and they may resort to compromise” because “the issue is the lack of hope for a positive outlook.” He further stated that “Hezbollah’s military power has weakened; many of its military commanders and top leaders have been killed, its military supplies have been consumed, and its members have been harmed. So, a retreat in this situation is conceivable” (Setareh Sobh, October 13).
Majlesi further warned of the dangerous consequences of continuing the regime’s warmongering, stating that “the state must address these issues” as the situation “will lead to social crises.”