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A powder keg of poverty: Why Iran’s regime is terrified of the next social eruption

Despite the Iranian regime’s continuous attempts to project an image of domestic stability, data published by its own state-run media reveals a catastrophic collapse in the living standards of the Iranian people. The vast majority of the country’s population has been pushed into absolute poverty, struggling to secure the most basic necessities of life.

According to official statistics from the end of July, the minimum cost of living—referred to as the “livelihood basket”—for an average family of 3.3 people has reached a staggering 900 million rials per month. Consequently, seven income deciles, equating to more than 70 percent of the population or roughly 63 million Iranians, have officially fallen below the poverty line. These millions are entirely unable to afford basic nutritional staples, including protein and dairy.

The driving force behind this destitution is an out-of-control inflation rate. In July, point-to-point general inflation hit an alarming 87.9 percent, while the annual inflation rate reached 66 percent.

The root cause: A plundering system and the IRGC mafia

The root of this widespread misery is not mere economic mismanagement or standard inefficiency, but the deeply corrupt and plundering nature of the ruling Velayat-e Faqih system. The nation’s wealth and resources are systematically drained to fund warmongering, terrorism, and a massive apparatus of domestic suppression rather than being invested in the welfare of the people.

The economic crisis in Iran is fundamentally structural, engineered by Khamenei’s inner circle and the massive mafia of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who hold the country’s financial and production arteries hostage. This grim reality is a far cry from the false promises made by the regime’s founder, who pledged free utilities and housing, only to leave 70 percent of the nation in utter destitution decades later.

The acceleration of poverty is staggering. Calculations show that the cost of the livelihood basket grew by 211.14 percent—an increase of 476 million rials—in just a four-month period leading up to July, vastly outpacing any wage adjustments and plunging families deeper into debt and desperation.

Starvation wages and the eradication of the middle class

The regime’s structural corruption has effectively obliterated the Iranian middle class, forcing the working class to attempt survival on what can only be described as starvation wages. A worker’s monthly salary, even assuming all benefits are paid, is just 249 million rials—a mere fraction of the 900-million-rial poverty line.

As a result, the purchasing power of workers has plummeted dramatically in a matter of months. While wages could cover 58.24 percent of basic living expenses at the beginning of the year, that figure dropped to just 27.58 percent by the end of July. In practical terms, this means a worker’s monthly salary only covers 8.27 days of living expenses. For the remaining 20 days of the month, Iranian working families are left in absolute poverty, completely unable to make ends meet.

Labor activists warn that the middle class has lost its former standing in society, and worsening income inequality is accelerating the entire country’s slide into impoverishment.

The illusion of self-sufficiency: Empty tables and hyperinflation

Regime officials routinely boast about achieving self-sufficiency in agricultural and food production, pointing to a decline in food imports. However, even state-affiliated labor experts confess that this is a dark and misleading illusion. The drop in imports is not due to abundant domestic production, but rather the reality that Iranians can no longer afford to buy food.

In July, point-to-point inflation for food and beverages skyrocketed to 128.1 percent, meaning the cost of basic food items multiplied by 2.8 compared to the previous year. Essential goods such as meat, poultry, eggs, legumes, and even bread have transformed into ultra-luxury commodities far beyond the reach of ordinary wage earners. Households have been forced to drastically cut their consumption, severely diminishing the quality of their diet.

Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has reached an unprecedented 71 percent. This staggering figure indicates massive cost pressures in the manufacturing and production sectors, guaranteeing that another devastating wave of consumer price hikes is imminent.

A society on the brink of eruption

The regime is acutely aware that it is sitting on a powder keg. Unbearable economic pressure is fueling immense public outrage across the country. In a desperate attempt to survive, workers are increasingly being pushed out of the formal labor market and into informal, unregulated employment, stripping them of insurance and job security, and pushing the labor market toward total collapse.

Even state-affiliated experts and media outlets now admit that this crisis is deeply structural. As long as the current political and economic apparatus remains in place, the process of impoverishment will only accelerate. The Iranian society has been transformed into a powder keg on the verge of a massive explosion—an eruption that will burn out the rotten roots of the supreme leader and its plundering IRGC mafia, paving the way for the establishment of a democratic republic that ends poverty, injustice, and discrimination once and for all.

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