Inflation has long been a structural and fundamental problem in Iran’s economy under the rule of the mullahs. Meanwhile, the inflation rate for food has alarmingly outpaced general inflation, further affecting the livelihoods of the poor and middle classes.
Based on official statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, the point-to-point inflation rate in January 2025 reached 31.8 percent.
What seems more worrying than this figure is the direct impact of these price increases on low-income families and the country’s economic structure. With the dramatic increase in the prices of essential goods, the class divide has deepened, and Iran, under the rule of the mullahs’ regime, is more than ever on the verge of a hunger crisis.
Food inflation outpaces general inflation
An examination of statistics released by the Statistical Center of Iran shows that the monthly inflation rate for food in January has increased compared to the general inflation rate. This difference indicates the added pressure that food inflation places on people’s livelihoods. While the country’s overall inflation is on an upward trend, the faster growth in food prices is causing the purchasing power of the poorer segments of society to decline sharply.
On the other hand, the impact of food inflation on low-income groups is much more severe than on the wealthy classes of society. According to these data, the share of food costs in the expenditure basket of low-income households is higher than that of higher-income households. As a result, rising food prices directly affect the purchasing power of this segment and increase the likelihood of a food crisis.
Inflation gap between city and village
A comparison of inflation between urban and rural areas shows that the annual inflation rate for urban areas was 32.4 percent and for rural areas 29.5 percent. This difference seems to indicate that inflationary pressure on cities is greater than on villages, but in practice, the reality is different. Many rural households face more severe problems in obtaining food due to income limitations and lack of access to government support. Increased transportation costs, shortages of essential goods in remote areas, and reduced purchasing power of farmers have made the living conditions of rural people more critical.
Soaring inflation of food items
One of the obvious signs of the economic crisis is the unprecedented increase in the price of food items. According to official reports from the Statistical Center of Iran, 25 percent of food items in January 2025 have increased in price by more than 50 percent compared to the previous year. This upward trend has made it more difficult for a large part of society to meet basic food needs.
For example, potatoes, which are one of the most widely consumed food items in Iran, recorded the highest price increase in January 2025 with a 103 percent increase compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, many other essential items such as rice, meat, dairy products, and oil have also witnessed astronomical price increases.
Simultaneous crisis of food inflation and shortage of foreign exchange resources
One of the most important reasons for the sharp increase in food prices in Iran is the problems related to the allocation of foreign currency for the import of essential goods. Unstable currency policies, shortage of foreign currency resources, and allocation of a major share of the budget to institutions of suppression and control of society as well as the production of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism have meant that providing the foreign currency needed to import agricultural inputs and raw materials for food production is not a priority.
On the other hand, the government’s plan to reduce the preferential foreign exchange rate for importing essential items and increase the exchange rate in the coming year has doubled concerns. If this policy is implemented, the prices of food and essential goods will increase even more, and the economic pressure on low-income households will become unbearable.
Ineffective support policies and livelihood crisis
To deal with the food inflation crisis, the regime has introduced the electronic coupon project as one of the support solutions. However, a review of the 2025 budget shows that the financial resources allocated for the implementation of this project have been severely reduced. While the budget allocated to this project in 2023 was 420 trillion rials, this figure has been reduced to 150 trillion rials in the 2025 budget. In addition, the target community of this project has also been reduced from 60 million people to 30 million people, which shows that its scope of coverage has been severely limited.
Meanwhile, according to a report by the Research Center of the regime’s parliament, during the years 2022 and 2023, the average per capita calorie intake of the Iranian people has reached less than 2,100 calories per day, which is considered a measure for assessing absolute poverty in global standards. In simpler terms, a significant part of the Iranian people are unable to provide their minimum required food due to reduced purchasing power.
The dark future of workers’ livelihoods
The inflation in January 2025 was announced at a time when negotiations are underway to determine the minimum wage for workers. According to calculations, the minimum cost of living for a working-class family is estimated at 299.4 million rials, while the current minimum income for a working-class family is only 111.07 million rials. These figures show that the current minimum wage covers only 37 percent of workers’ living expenses.
Iran’s economy is on a free fall
As a result, the runaway food inflation in Iran, along with ineffective economic policies and reduced purchasing power of the people, has brought the situation to a critical stage. Reduced per capita food consumption, increased absolute poverty, and the ineffectiveness of support programs show that Iran’s occupied economy is on a free fall.
The daily cries of Iran’s low-income groups, pensioners, workers, and laborers on the streets show that the Iranian people will not tolerate this situation, and a major social explosion is lurking for those destroying Iran.