Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Jan. 29, 2019 – The critical state of Iran's economy and the increasingly negative growth rates are no longer considered revelations. The "Majlis (Parliament) Research Center" published a report on January 24, 2019, whose subject was the economic forecast for the next (Iranian) year. The report anticipates the Iranian economy to have a negative rate of growth of -4.5 to -5.5 percent depending on the two economic scenarios that might happen. (Ilna News Agency, 24 January 2019)
Both scenarios are far too optimistic to be called anything but wishful thinking. Yet, they are more connected with the reality, compared to Rouhani's blunt lies when he promised an economic growth of 4 percent.
According to the assessment by Majlis Research Center, if the Iranian regime can export 1.9 million bpd of oil and natural gas condensate over the next year, Iran's economy will have a negative rate of growth of 4.5 percent. If the exports drop to 1.5 million bpd, the rate of growth will be -5.5 percent (Donya-e Eqtesad economic website).
Reuters reported on October 2018 that Iranian oil exports had dropped down to 1.1 million bpd, and there is every indication that the number is definitely lower than 1 million bpd now. The sum of petrochemical and natural gas condensate in the last month was zero. Therefore, the real crisis is far worse than the picture painted by the Majlis Research Center.
Washington Times wrote on January 24, 2019:
"A veritable mountain of statistical evidence points to the fact that, in the past four decades of clerical rule, the Islamic Republic has experienced a precipitous decline in domestic prosperity and global standing.
According to the World Bank, per capita GDP in Iran has declined by more than 30 percent in real terms since the mid-1970s, as the purchasing power of the country’s national currency, the rial, has plummeted. Those same statistics indicate that Iran’s economy has dropped from 17th to 27th place in the world in the four decades since the revolution — one of the steepest declines in modern history."
The effects on the daily lives of Iranian people
In a nutshell: catastrophic.
Let's hear it from the regime's own experts:
Mohammad Reza Sabbagihan, Member of Majlis, January 22, 2019:
"This situation is breaking people's backs. The prices on some commodities have risen 100% or even 200%."
Farshad Momeni, economist, January 23, 2019:
"The poverty line compared to the previous year has grown by 20 per cent."
What is the Iranian regime doing to resolve the situation?
In a nutshell: nothing.
Any serious action would undermine the regime's very existence. The Iranian wealth has not just vanished. It has been used for war mongering policies in the region, terrorist plot around the world, missile developments and nuclear ambitions, and it has been transferred to personal accounts of the regime's leaders. Which one of these trends can the regime reverse?
A 2013 investigation by the Reuters news agency found that the regime's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, now controls a financial empire worth some $95 billion, and that this fortune was amassed through property seizures, shady transactions and sweetheart deals.
Diagram by Reuters:
According to Washington Times, other regime insiders — like parliament speaker Ali Larijani and foreign minister Javad Zarif— are likewise said to have acquired personal fortunes worth tens of millions of dollars by leveraging their positions of privilege.
No wonder ordinary Iranians are angry, and increasingly vocal about it. The Iranian people whose uprising has ceaselessly continued over the past year, are convinced that meaningful reform simply isn’t possible under the country’s current leadership. Therefore, the protests throughout Iran are bound to persist until the mullahs’ regime is toppled.
