Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, June 14, 2021—In a recent interview with the state-run ISNA news agency, Steve Hanke, professor of economics at the Johns Hopkins University, ranked the Iranian regime as eighth in the misery.
“According to Hanke, high inflation is the main reason for the high economic misery index (sum of unemployment and inflation rate) in Iran, and currency depreciation, the most important factor in high inflation. Among 156 ranked countries, Iran ranks eighth. The highest rates of economic misery are in Venezuela, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Syria, Argentina and Turkey,” ISNA reported on June 7.
Of course, the statements made by the regime’s presidential candidates in recent debates show that Iran a few short steps away from reaching the top of the list on the misery index.
Rising liquidity
The staggering growth of liquidity is one of the darkest parts of the government’s record, threatening the people’s housing and daily food, and drastically reducing their purchasing power. Growing liquidity is an important factor in intensifying inflation and has reached a dangerous stage. The deputy chairman of the parliament’s economic commission recently announced that the historical record of point-to-point inflation was broken this March. Inflation is said to have reached an unprecedented 50 percent, according to unpublished statistics withheld by the Central Bank of Iran.
On June 7, Mehr News Agency reported, “The amount of liquidity in the country has increased from 16 trillion rials to 35 trillion rials during the past three years. That means more than 50 percent of the country’s total liquidity has been created in the last three years, which is an unprecedented record in the world.”
Iran on the verge of ” Hyperinflation “
According to economists, when the inflation rate reaches more than 50 percent, we enter the “hyperinflation” stage.
A June 9 report by the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade states, “Some experts’ analysis shows that the situation could be even more difficult. These forecasts emphasize that the Iranian economy is now ready to reach three-digit inflation; A rate that was experienced only during the years of occupation of the country in World War II.”
Economist Mohammadreza Abdollahi said, “If the Vienna nuclear negotiation do not achieve great results, three-digit inflation in Iran will not be unlikely.”
The mullahs’ bankrupt economy
These days, the Macroeconomic Committee of the Expediency Discernment Council has presented a noteworthy report about the country’s economic situation. The report hints at the depth of the disaster.
According to the report: “The average economic growth of the country from 1997 to 2004, from 2005 to 2010, and 2011 to 2017, has constantly deteriorated and has decreased from 3.5 percent to 2.17 percent. Investment growth is worse than economic growth, and in most years, it has been negative, which will destroy the country’s production capacity for many years and will seriously damage employment in the country. Inflation rate in Iran has had the worst performance, while the problem of inflation is now solved in most countries. The change in the exchange rate has also shown the deterioration of the national currency. The exchange rate has increased almost 5.7 times from 2017 to 2020 and has grown by about 466 percent. People’s purchasing power has also been steadily declining. For example, in 2019 and after 17 years, it has reached less than the purchasing power index of the people in 2002. Unbridled money growth has increased since 2018 and has experienced growth rates of about 50 percent, and unfortunately its growth in 2020 has reached 61.7 percent. The labor force participation rate in Iran in the last 10 years has been in the range of 36.9 to 44.5 percent, which is very low and indicates that a large part of the population is not economically active and cannot play a role in increasing the country’s economic production.”
Political problems that exacerbate economic misery
In their debates, the candidates of the regime’s sham presidential election revealed new aspects of economic corruption in the government and only added to the people’s hatred of the regime. While the candidates were trying to show sympathy with the people by laying the blame for their problems on other regime factions and officials, in effect, what they said only made things worse for the regime in its entirety.
In a June 7 report, the Eghtesadepooya website quoted MP Dariush Qanbari as saying, “The problem is poverty, not the political factions. Currently, in the economic field, the most important thing is to eliminate unemployment and curb inflation… The reformists have lost their base because the reformists were mainly elites and the elites were supporting this faction, but now even the elites do not support this faction.”
“Despair and disappointment have caused people to ignore the promises of the candidates and not care about them. Therefore, instead of hollow promises, it is better to offer a suitable solution. Iran’s economy is shrinking daily, and investment and production are at a minimum,” he added.
The fact is that the regime has sped past other despotic regimes in the index of economic and political misery.
The people of Iran are settling for nothing less than regime change, and they don’t care who will be running for president. The Iranian people are preparing for the final confrontation with the regime.
