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Iran nuclear deal: A glimmer of hope or a trap for regime change?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

Analysis by PMOI/MEK


Iran, June 24, 2019 - Tensions between Iran and the international community are increasing dramatically over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the 2015 nuclear deal.  The current circumstances beg the question whether the JCPOA, which just until recently was the focus of hope for the ruling theocracy in Tehran to escape its domestic crises, has now become a trap placing the regime at a crossroads leading to regime change either way.

Despite the tough positions adopted by the European trio - signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal - Germany, United Kingdom, and France, over Iran’s 60-day ultimatum, Iranian regime Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reiterated Iran’s position on June 21.

“The second phase of Iran’s measures will start on July 7,” he said.

Meanwhile, the European Union, which had previously said that it does not accept Iran’s ultimatums, ignored Iran’s threats once again and announced that “high ranking officials from France, Germany, the UK, China, Russia, and Iran will meet on June 28 in Vienna to talk about ways to rescue the nuclear deal.”

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the foreign policy and national security committee in the Iranian parliament, also confirmed statements made by regime President Hassan Rouhani and Zarif and said Iran won’t wait for European countries forever.

Some Iranian pundits warn about Europe’s position.

When asked whether Europe will be able to prevent Tehran from entering the second phase in the small remaining time window, Abdolreza Farajirad, Iran’s former ambassador to Norway, says: “Generally, all the efforts, and attempts by Europe can’t lead serious results proportionate with Tehran’s expectations. In this short period, in the best case, Europe will be able to take some steps to execute the first transactions of its financial mechanism.”

“That’s because the INSTEX financial mechanism is more suitable for providing basic goods and medicament than comprehensive trading relations with Iran. It appears that these countries will not be able to find a serious solution for Iran’s oil sales and banking transactions. This is not proportionate to Iran’s compliance to its obligations,” he added.

Farajirad then warns about Iran violation of the JCPOA.

“The overall developments are advancing in the path desired by the United States. Therefore, because of Europe’s concerns about Tehran’s measures, the circumstances are ripe for the position of the U.S. to get closer to the positions of Germany, France, and the UK, as much as the chances of disagreement between Iran and the European trio in the JCPOA are high, because of Iran’s actions,” he added.

Referring to the U.S. special representative for Iran, Farajirad continues: “Brian Hook’s presence in Paris is an attempt to pave the way for the U.S. and Europe to get along regarding Iran and the JCPOA, so that they can create more pressure. In addition to this goal, it is possible that the White House is trying to prepare the situation for drawing Iran’s file to the Security Council, so it needs the support of the European trio.”

Javan newspaper, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), also warns about the visit of the European trio’s officials.

“Evidence suggests that the foreign ministers of the trio have planned this visit in order to persuade Iran to remain in the JCPOA. A scenario that, if not implemented [if Iran does not remain in the JCPOA], ‘Iran must face its consequences’, as put by [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel.”