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Iran: Fear of war and the regime’s gradual disintegration

Chief Commander of IRGC Hossein Salami
Chief Commander of IRGC Hossein Salami

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

 

Iran, May 17, 2019 - Last Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) newly appointed chief went to the regime’s Majlis (parliament) to reassure the horrified members that there will not be war.

Regardless of future developments, the current situation in Iran shows very well how hollow and vulnerable the “revolutionary” power structure of the theocracy has become.

Dispatching U.S. battleships to the Persian Gulf on the one hand and growing popular discontent and economic misery on the other has created an avalanche of desires for negotiations on both sides of the political aisle inside the Iranian regime.

Naghavi Hosseini, one of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s minions in the Majlis’ National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, while pretending to have an anti-U.S. stance, alluded to negotiations with the “Great Satan.”

“At the end of the day, we don’t know what approach they want to implement and how they want to solve these paradoxes? Recently, we witnessed them backing off from their past positions and they have even announced that they will forgo past conditions and are ready to negotiate,” he said.

According to the Jomhuri Eslami newspaper, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations also indicated Tehran’s willingness to negotiate with the U.S.

“Iran’s permanent ambassador the U.N. responded to Trump’s proposal for negotiations saying: ‘The U.S. President needs to first say why he left the negotiating table. What are the guarantees that he doesn’t break his promise again in the future talks with Iran?’”

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, chair of the Majlis Security Commission, praised Trump’s recent comments about negotiations and the phone number provided to Switzerland for Iran.

“The U.S. President wants to decrease tensions and to prevent military rhetoric between Iran and America,” he said.

Zahra Saiidy, the spokesperson for the Economy Commission, expressed her fears of the popular protests and warned the government to do its best to diffuse discontent among ordinary Iranians.

Mostafa Kavakebian, another Majlis member, said: “If we don’t want to bow down before bullies, we need to bow before the people. It means God forbid, the people should hear of no more issues such as abuse of power and corruption.”

Majlis members are panicking under domestic and U.S. pressure, showing signs of a desire to negotiate with the U.S., while Khamenei has already said there will not be any war or negotiations with the U.S.

In a meeting with military personnel, he reiterated this position on May 14.

One important point to note is how Iranian officials have backed down from the hardline positions in tandem with the U.S. military buildup and the gradual increase of sanctions.

This has been a pattern throughout the regime’s history, to concede when there are enough resolve and pressure from adversaries.

Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei’s representative in the northeast city of Mashhad, clearly expressed the ruling mullahs’ actual source of fear in his Friday prayers last week.

“These people who are moving into battle formation have done this with people they hope to raise inside of Iran against the [Islamic] revolution,” he said. “They are counting on this [young] generation that is entering the field these days.”

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