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Iran exiting the nuclear deal: A lose-lose situation

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Analysis by PMOI/MEK


Iran, June 26, 2019 - Over the past few days, two European special representatives have traveled to Iran, reiterating the consequences of violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

While the Iranian regime, Hassan Rouhani himself included, maintains that all its measures are in accordance to the JCPOA and they don’t intend to withdraw from the nuclear deal, their foreign counterparts emphasize that Tehran’s actions account to violating the JCPOA and will bear consequences.

On the eve of a visit to Iran by Andrew Morrison, the UK Deputy Foreign minister for the Middle East, the UK Foreign Office issued a statement saying that the goal of his visit to Tehran is to have “open, frank and constructive engagements” about regional tensions and the JCPOA.

Iranian state-run media also reported that in Tehran, Morrison will ask for an “immediate de-escalation” and will raise Britain’s concerns “about the regional behavior of the Iranian regime and its threats to stop complying with the nuclear deal.”

The UK Foreign office statement further adds: “At this time of increased regional tensions and at a crucial period for the future of the nuclear deal, this visit is an opportunity for further open, frank and constructive engagement with the government of Iran.

Last Saturday, Morrison arrived in Tehran and met with Kamal Kharazi, former Iranian foreign minister and chair of the regime’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, to convey Europe’s position. This entity is linked directly to Iranian regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iranian media did not publish any details on the meeting while writing, “Kharazi described Morrison’s statement’s as ‘old’ and said that Iran will take further nuclear measures in the coming weeks.”

“According to the text of the JCPOA, Iran has decided to stop some of its obligations and has stopped two of its obligations until now and after the 60-day ultimatum, in two weeks, we will take further steps,” Kharazi said. He is also one of Khamenei’s advisors on foreign relations.

Just a day before Morrison’s fruitless visit to Tehran, former UK ambassador to Tehran Richard Dalton said one of the paramount missions of the visit is to convey London’s important message about the implementation of Europe’s financial mechanism for Iran.

Also just before Morrison’s visit, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini issued a warning to Tehran.

“We do not want to see interference or hostile activities in the region, be they from Iran or others, we would like to see a cooperative, constructive attitude with all when it comes to the region,” she said.

Iranian media quoted Mogherini saying, “We strongly hope, encourage and expect that Iran continues to comply with its commitments under the JCPOA in full.”

While reiterating the need for Iran to comply with the JCPOA, Mogherini didn’t have tangible solutions for any of the Iranian regime’s demands.

“During the past year, it has become increasingly difficult for all to keep the nuclear deal fully implemented. This has been our constant focus as Europeans, as the European Union, myself personally, as I have a responsibility in coordinating the work of the Joint Commission [of the JCPOA]. So our focus is not to enter into a blame game or giving responsibility for the collapse of a deal that might come.”

Meanwhile, Arman newspaper quoted Reuters saying, “The three European signatories of the JCPOA have a new plan to rescue the agreement and therefore, it may be that the foreign ministers of these countries will visit Iran soon.”

Iranian analysts warn the regime that its measures to withdraw from its obligations under the JCPOA will be considered JCPOA violations and will place the Islamic Republic against the international community.

 “What Behrouz Kamalvandi said will appear as if the Islamic Republic has left the JCPOA,” Ali Bigdeli said referring to statements issued by the deputy chief of Iran’s atomic energy organization.

“If our measures lead to Europe distancing itself from Iran, America will have accomplished its goal because Trump has done his best to turn Iran’s issue into an international one,” Bigdeli further added.

It appears that the Islamic Republic of Iran is at a crossroads: Stay committed to the JCPOA or gradually withdraw from it. A situation that, as they put it, is a “lose-lose situation.”