Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, March 24, 2020—An Iranian student research group forecasted three possible outcomes for the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which includes one case where 3.5 million people lose their lives to COVID-19.
According to this group, the best scenario is to quarantine 80% of the population. In this scenario, the number of affected people will rise to 120,000 by April 1 and the death toll will reach 12,000.
In the second scenario, if quarantines are not applied and connections between people stay at 50%, we can expect 300,000 to contract the virus and the death toll to rise to 110,000.
The worst scenario will come to pass if the regime remains antagonistic to public quarantines. In this case, 65% of will contract the virus and millions will die.
According to reports obtained by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the current death toll of the coronavirus outbreak has surpassed 10,500.
Coronavirus in Iran: 50 new cases every hour, one death every 10 minutes
due to the worsening situation and the exponential increase of coronavirus deaths in Iran, the regime, which has downplayed the figures and scale of the outbreak since the onset, leaks statistics that are close to reality through unofficial sources to prepare the public opinion to accept the terrible truth.
“Every hour 50 people contract coronavirus and every 10 minutes a person loses their life due to coronavirus,” said Kianoush Jahanpour, head of the Public Relations and Information Center of Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran.
“We must quickly find a solution to restrict urban and suburban traffic. If we don’t act urgently today, given the miscalculations of February, we will probably face many problems in April, which in addition to its threat to people’s lives will bring severe conflicts within the executive system in the coming months," the officials IRNA news agency quoted on March 22 the letter of regime’s former Chief Executives of the Health Insurance Organization to regime president Hassan Rouhani, who requested the imposition of public quarantines.
In another case, an MP wrote to Rouhani: “While the number of affected people in highly populated deprived and marginalized parts of the country is low, how do you allow people to appear freely in public? Our experts and consultants say that more than ever, it is necessary to obligate and legally bind everyone to stay at home as a need for general health and strategically confronting the crisis.”
Quarantine: the conspiracy of the anti-revolutionists!
Despite the critical situation, Rouhani downplays the situation and insists on not imposing quarantines on cities, calling it a conspiracy of the anti-revolutionists to shut down the economy. Rouhani said: “This is something I advised from day one and said that the anti-revolutionists is plotting to shut down work and the economy in Iran. Our ministry of intelligence later produced detailed evidence about this, and this is their goal and we must not let that happen.”
Instead, Rouhani emphasized that the armed forces and police must “inevitably be present in the streets” and are “considered as priority recipients for health masks and gloves.”
The security nature of Rouhani’s antagonism with the quarantine of cities is clearly connected to events in previous months, such as the downing of a passenger airplane by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in January, and the November uprisings and killing of 1,500 protesters by security forces. Rouhani is afraid of losing control again. He knows that in this situation people will be more united. This is in fact what is happening now. People spontaneously blocked city entrances and disinfected public places and neighborhoods and distributed health masks and gloves for free.
The unity of the people can be the base for the foundation of Popular Councils. The reality is that the quarantine of cities will strengthen the feeling of solidarity among the people and the Iranian regime is very afraid of this. For this reason, it is very clear that the regime always considers its security situation and does not like to lose control of the cities with the quarantine of the cities.
The war against coronavirus will decide the future of Iran
On the other hand, the regime doesn’t have the capacity to answer to the people’s basic needs if it quarantines the cities. At the same time, people don’t have enough income to procure their needs and will be forced to confront the regime’s repressive forces and come out of their homes, which will trigger new waves of protests. This is one of the regime’s main concerns, especially in these times of crisis. As he strengthened the presence of suppressive forces in cities and established an unofficial martial law, Rouhani said: “Hopefully until April 1, the situation will change by itself and we will hopefully have a new situation by then.”
Rouhani’s antagonism with the quarantine of the cities is another criminal negligence that shows that the regime’s highest priority is to preserve its rule. China, which has a population that is 20 times larger than Iran, managed to quarantine cities and contain the spread of the virus. Why did Iran fail? This shows the regime’s betrayal and indifference to people’s lives. Therefore, the people of Iran are determined not to let the coronavirus spread by mullahs’ negligence take more lives.
The leader of the Iranian Resistance Massoud Rajavi said: “The struggle of the Iranian people against the coronavirus is part of the struggle of destiny against Khamenei and his regime.”