Statistics reflect the measurement of economic and social transformations and changes in a striving society. Statistics enable governments, people, and experts to identify the trends of societal developments and shape their own future path. In the Iranian regime, the responsibility of providing key and important economic statistics has been entrusted to two institutions, namely the Statistical Center and the Central Bank. However, these two institutions consistently provide different statistics on economic variables, citing various reasons and excuses. This has led the Iranian regime to rely on these differences as justifications for its failures and prolonged bankruptcies, misleading the audience to the extent that they eventually refrain from auditing and clarifying the failed performance of the ruling regime in Iran and ultimately rely on foreign statistical centers. Interestingly, Mohammad Reza Farzin, the head of the Central Bank, considers the discrepancy between the statistics of these two institutions as a natural phenomenon with a historical background.
relies on statistics published by affiliated centers under his command. However, with the same statistical discrepancies, he falsely claims an improvement in the economic situation. According to the announcement of the Statistical Center of Iran, economic growth in the first half of this year was reported as 7.5%, while according to the Central Bank’s account, this figure was 4.7%. To understand the significance of this gap, it is enough to pay attention to the hidden figure of 2.2 quadrillion rials, which is easily equivalent to 32.4% of the six-month gross domestic product. This discrepancy is not limited to aggregate figures only; even the relevant subsets show a significant difference. One of the justifications for this is the different base years used by both institutions. Additionally, the acceptable level of inflation is another reason for the statistical gap. Ironically, economic growth without oil, according to the Central Bank, was 2.4%, while according to the Statistical Center of Iran, it was 4.2%, which is a significant difference. Furthermore, the growth of the agricultural sector, according to the Statistical Center, is negative at 3.2%, while the Central Bank’s statistics show a positive growth of one-tenth of a percent!
On December 24, Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper wrote, “This situation leads to a distortion of the public discourse and even makes it impossible to engage in meaningful conversations and reach conclusions about the country’s situation. Furthermore, policymaking becomes challenging in such an environment. Should policymakers base their decisions on positive growth statistics in a sector or on negative growth? If policymakers are going to use monetary tools to overcome a recession or stimulate growth, which statistics should be taken into consideration?”
Misleading statistics
On December 25, Jahan-e Sanat newspaper, wrote, “Indeed, there are economists who believe that the published statistics regarding economic growth not only do not align with the realities of the Iranian economy but should be deeply misleading.”
Jahan-e Sanat newspaper quoted a university professor as saying, “In the Iranian economy, the largest consumer is the government, and the growth calculation model based on increased consumption essentially means that all aspects of the economy are dependent on government decisions. A significant portion of businesses, financial institutions, and rule-makers are, in fact, the government. As the economic growth rate based on this pattern increases, the level of misfortune for private enterprises and households increases, leading to further economic downturn for the country.”
The economy, under the control of Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his faction within the regime, has seized public resources and the wealth of the Iranian people, using them to serve their own interests and agendas, which are to the detriment of the people. Now, the statistics are revealing the consumption of country’s assets. The same economist states, “Due to the outflow of capital from the country, the national capital account is severely negative. On the other hand, there is no significant foreign investment in the country’s economy, nor is there any significant innovation in the field of technology. Moreover, the private sector of the country lacks the ability to purchase licenses and patents from major international companies. In light of these circumstances, how can we rely on the current economic growth statistics? The increase in government expenditures is not an art.”
Oil-based growth
In fact, the same report refers to the sale and plundering of oil resources and talks about the leap in the country’s exports. According to a December 24 report by Etemad newspaper, “A large part of this ‘export leap’ is owed to the ‘oil and gas’ sector. In fact, with the increase in oil sales, mostly through high discounts, the main and significant role in economic growth in the first half of this year has been attributed to oil and gas.”
Despite all the exploitation of the country’s resources, the costs of the current regime in Iran are still so staggering that the assets that the regime has taken into its service are not sufficient to cover the expenses of warmongering, bomb-making, missile production, and supplying its proxy forces. To compensate for astronomical budget deficits, the regime grabs for what little is left in the people’s pockets, which has resulted in spiking inflation, high prices of food, and skyrocketing housing rent.
Grim prospects for the country’s economy
The World Bank report also indicates that due to the worsening perpetual budget deficit in Iran, which has reached around 30% of the total budget, there is no longer room for investment. Observing this critical situation, critics allude to the government’s failure, saying, “Es’haq Jahangiri, the Vice President of Hassan Rouhani’s government, while referring to the escalating chaotic expenses of the government and the increasing constraints on government resources, spoke about the uncertain economic horizon of the country and the decision-making deadlock that has ensued as a result.” (Source: Eco Iran, December 24)
One component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is private final consumption (household consumption). It includes expenses of food, clothing and housing, healthcare, transportation, recreation, culture, and more. This indicator not only has shown no growth compared to the previous year but is also testament to the worsening state of people’s well-being in the current year, as evidenced by various poverty, destitution, hunger, and disease indicators affecting millions of people in this land, leading them towards destitution and rapid decline.
