On January 8, Ali Khamenei, the Iranian regime’s supreme leader, made a public appearance to speak about the collapse of his strategic depth in Syria. This marked the fifth time within a month that he had addressed this issue. He made significant efforts to bolster the morale of his disheartened forces with deception and manipulation. However, media outlets and government-affiliated circles remain filled with protests and regret, lamenting statements such as, “What costs and resources were wasted in Syria!” and “What blood was spilled in vain!”
The strategic blow of Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria has wide-ranging and multifaceted consequences for the regime. Here are some of the enormous costs the regime has incurred in Syria, leaving it entangled in the aftermath of the collapse of the Syrian regime.
Manpower costs
In 2016, the U.S. Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) published a book detailing the Iranian regime’s involvement in Syria. According to the NCRI’s estimates, at that time, the regime had around 70,000 forces deployed in Syria, including:
- Approximately 10,000 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
- 6,000 soldiers from the regime’s regular army
- 20,000 members of the regime’s militia groups in Iraq
- 7,000 to 10,000 operatives from the Lebanese Hezbollah
- 15,000 to 20,000 Afghan mercenaries known as the Fatemiyoun Division
- And 5,000 to 7,000 Pakistani mercenaries known as the Zainabiyoun Brigade.
A year later, in October 2017, the NCRI released another exposé, revealing that the number of IRGC mercenary forces in Syria had surpassed 100,000. Subsequent reports confirmed that over the past seven years, the regime maintained this level of manpower in Syria. On December 7, 2024, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, a top advisor to Khamenei, stated on state television, “The massive resistance forces in Syria exceed 100,000 people.”
According to regime sources, 6,000 IRGC members were killed in this war. However, the actual number is certainly higher. Additionally, the casualties of regular army personnel and non-Iranian militias under the command of the Quds Force are not included in this figure.
Financial costs
In 2023, according to internal documents from the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed by the “Uprising to Overthrow” group, Bashar al-Assad’s government owed Iran $50 billion during the 2010s. This debt does not include additional funds provided to Assad from 2021 onwards.
According to Bashar al-Assad’s last prime minister, the clerical regime in Iran provided $1 billion annually in cash aid, along with two million barrels of free oil and one million barrels of discounted oil per month to Assad’s regime (Asr Iran website, December 25, 2024).
In addition to military expenses in Syria, the clerical regime spent enormous sums on social, religious, and cultural activities. A significant portion of the 185 trillion rial budget of the “Khomeini Relief Committee” was allocated to Syria and Lebanon, none of which is included in the official figures.
Another indication of the astronomical costs in Syria is the infrastructure built by the regime, including seven air bases, 15 missile depots, 22 command centers, and the construction of 85 kilometers of underground tunnels (from Syria to Lebanon) at a cost of billions of dollars.
In light of these facts, the words of IRGC General Hossein Hamdani, Qassem Soleimani’s deputy who was killed in Syria, become clearer. In 2014, he stated, “Today, 130,000 trained Basij members are ready to enter Syria. Today, we are fighting in Syria for reasons tied to the Islamic Revolution, and our defense is on par with the era of the [Iran-Iraq] war.”
The weight of the regime’s defeat with the loss of Syria can also be discerned from other remarks by Hamdani. He said, “One of our senior military officials… told the Supreme Leader [Khamenei]: If they finish Syria, they will come to Iraq, then to Iran! The Leader replied: No, they will come directly to Iran!” (Harim Haram website, November 6, 2016).