In a revealing interview with the state-run Khabar Online news website, Amanullah Qarai-Moghadam, a government expert, shed light on the critical socio-economic transformations Iran faced in Persian calendar year 1402 (March 2023-March 2024), highlighting the profound implications of these shifts on the nation’s stability. His insights offer a window into the underlying tensions fueling the country’s social and political landscape, marked by a notable shrinkage in the middle class—a development with far-reaching consequences.
Qarai-Moghadam points out, “A very important change that we witnessed in 1402 is the shrinking of the middle class.” Traditionally, the middle class serves as a buffer, or a “resistance shield,” protecting the lower strata from the upper echelons of society. Its erosion, according to the expert, not only destabilizes this balance but also propels the lower classes into a potential confrontation with the upper classes and the government. This thinning of the middle class, therefore, signifies a loss of a critical stabilizing force within Iranian society, with the potential to undermine social cohesion and governance.
Qarai-Moghadam further elaborates on the prevailing sentiments of discontent among the people, manifested through various forms of collective behavior. He cites the diminished voter turnout in recent elections as a tangible expression of public dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. This mass boycott of the regime’s sham elections underscores a broader disaffection with the regime and further highlights the people’s desire for change.
In addition to economic grievances, the interview touches upon significant socio-cultural dynamics, particularly concerning women’s rights and participation in public protests. Qarai-Moghadam acknowledges the ongoing changes within the women’s community, emphasizing that all segments of the women’s community are seeking to change the conditions. “Today, individual and social changes in the women’s society have caused the gray stratum and women who wear hijab to be affected and take a step forward in order to improve the existing situation,” Qarai-Moghadam said.
The protests of 2022, according to him, were not just a momentary upheaval but a reflection of deeper societal issues. “The men and women who lived through this era, they are not stone and wood, they have feelings, they speak, they protest,” he states, acknowledging the emotional and political undercurrents driving the uprising. The participation of both veiled and non-veiled women in these protests symbolizes a widespread demand for change, challenging the status quo and the restrictions imposed on them.
Qarai-Moghadam’s commentary underscores a crucial point: Iranian women are increasingly educated and aware of their rights. And the decades-long resistance of Iranian women, especially members of the PMOI, have had deep effects on the women of Iran, propelling them to the forefront of the movement for regime change.
Their protests stem from a recognition of the erosion of their basic rights and their desire to live in a free country, signaling a collective push towards reclaiming them. In his interview, Qarai-Moghadam expressed a firm belief in the eventual success of these movements, emphasizing, “Do not doubt that they will win in this way and this is a certain event, sooner or later, but there is no fuel.”
Qarai-Moghadam’s reflections paint a picture of a society on the brink of significant transformation. The diminishing middle class, the general disaffection with governmental policies, and the rising tide of women’s activism form a complex mosaic of challenges and opportunities for Iran. As Qarai-Moghadam suggests, these developments are not merely temporary disturbances but indicative of deeper currents of change that have the potential to reshape Iranian society profoundly.
