As we delve into the prospects of the Iranian year 1403 (2024-2025), a comprehensive examination reveals a critical intertwining of political, social, and economic elements. These intertwined elements form the pillars of both state and society, suggesting a year ahead filled with significant challenges and opportunities for Iran.
The fate of Iran, particularly under the current regime, has been increasingly tied to these three foundational factors more than ever before, especially in the aftermath of the widespread 2022 uprising. This uprising intensified internal conflicts within the regime and accelerated the erosion of its declining social base, marking a pivotal moment in Iran’s contemporary history.
The essentiality of analyzing the intertwined nature of Iran’s political, social, and economic issues has never been more crucial. The unique intertwining under the current regime, where authoritarianism spans across all three areas, ensures that these issues are inseparable and collectively contribute to the nation’s fate.
Economically, Iran faces a dire crisis embedded within a broader social turmoil, both of which are deeply rooted in a political crisis. This interconnection underscores that understanding the political deadlock of the regime is key to grasping the broader economic and social challenges facing the country.
The political deadlock, particularly exacerbated by the strategic outcomes of the 2022 uprising, continues to deepen. Acknowledgments from within the regime itself have surfaced, suggesting an inevitable downfall if the current course remains unchanged.
This interdependency between economy and politics is a hallmark of the regime’s tenure, where decades of economic crises have been handed down from one government to the next, each iteration worse than the last. The root cause is the monopolization of economic resources to sustain the regime, a policy that has pushed the people to the brink of survival, deepening social stratification to unprecedented levels.
The extraordinary class divide has led to a critical existential crisis among social strata, with the past two years witnessing a steady rise in public dissent and strikes. This increasing dissatisfaction is a testament to the regime’s failure to address and manage the intertwined economic and social crises.
The dual crises of economy and society are fueled by the plundering of natural and financial resources for regime preservation and expansionist ambitions. This cycle of crises is rooted in a political deadlock characterized by authoritarianism, monopolization, and an inescapable tightening grip.
Regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s attempts to instill hope through economic themes for each year have consistently failed to address the worsening economic crisis, increasing class disparities, and expanding social unrest.
The underlying cause of these escalating crises is the political deadlock at the core of all challenges faced by Iran. This deadlock spreads from one government to the next, directly impacting the lives and livelihoods of the Iranian people.
The political deadlock within the regime has both internal and external facets, where external pressures exacerbate internal vulnerabilities. The regime’s tendency to sideline long-standing supporters in favor of further consolidation of power only deepens the divide between the state and society, a trend that has accelerated over the past two years.
The continuation of these trends sends a clear message: the political deadlock within the mullahs’ regime has no internal solution. The deeper the societal divide and unrest, the more insurmountable the regime’s deadlock becomes.
As Iran settles into the new Persian calendar year, the regime faces a comprehensive deadlock across economic, social, and political domains. At the heart of this deadlock lies the tangible conditions for uprising and revolution within Iran’s explosive society. Analysts and experts acknowledge the upcoming year as “special and distinct,” markedly different from previous years.
The uniqueness of 1403 lies in the triple deadlock of economy, society, and politics, presenting no forward path other than a significant change — a negation of the entirety of the current regime as the only solution to these interlinked crises.
The year ahead for Iran, therefore, is not just another year but a critical juncture that could determine the fate of its people and the regime itself.
