Following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria, the Iran’s regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made considerable efforts to restore the morale of his disillusioned forces through speeches filled with lies and distortions. He attempted to cover up his strategic defeats with contradictory and baseless statements, aiming to motivate his forces.
Speech on December 11: Beating a Dead Horse
In December 11 speech, Khamenei blatantly made nonsensical remarks, figuratively beating a dead. At a time when the collapse and disintegration of Assad’s mercenaries had become the world’s top news, he stated: “Certainly, the brave Syrian youth will rise, resist, sacrifice, and even suffer losses, but they will overcome this situation!” These remarks were made as the Syrian people and “brave youth” in the streets of various cities were celebrating Assad’s ouster. In fear of the consequences of this strategic defeat, Khamenei officially declared that highlighting defeats or demoralizing the Basij forces was a crime punishable by law.
Admissions by Regime Media
The reality, however, is that even regime media and analysts can no longer hide this defeat. In recent weeks, many domestic publications have directly or indirectly referred to the unraveling of Khamenei’s years-long efforts in Syria. Analyses published in these outlets reveal the regime’s grave concerns over losing its last regional leverage:
Nine days after the decree declaring it a “crime” to demoralize the regime’s forces, the state-run Ham-Mihan newspaper, on December 21, wrote: “The fall of Bashar al-Assad is not only a significant event for Syria but also has repercussions across the Middle East. However, no country feels the consequences of this event as much as Iran. Tehran’s sudden exit from Syria, which has supported Assad since the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, is a strategic and military blow to Iran. The Iranian resistance axis, built by taking advantage of the Arab Spring, was designed to provide Tehran with strategic depth and prevent attacks. Over the past year, this network has suffered significant blows.”
On December 21, the state-run Setareh Sobh newspaper wrote: “The playing field has changed; the next 30 days are dangerous… Evidence and indications suggest that the Middle East map is about to be redrawn with coordination between Turkey, Israel, the US, and Russia to Iran’s detriment… The reality is that the playing field for Iran has shifted with the arrival of Trump, Putin’s entanglement in the Ukraine war, and Assad’s fall, which had previously been Iran’s backyard. The global and regional conditions are no longer in Iran’s favor.”
On the same day, the state-run Donya-ye Eghtesad newspaper stated: “Regional trends indicate the weakening of Iran’s economic and political standing. Therefore, Tehran, unlike a decade ago, lacks the capability to act and influence beyond regional developments. The new rivalries between Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which sometimes align in certain cases, given Iran’s new position, make it difficult for our country to undertake significant diplomatic and economic measures. To restore Iran’s power to act, the best guideline is a revision of some policies towards the region and the international system. If this revision does not occur and the current trend continues, the main developments in the Middle East may unfold without Iran’s involvement.”
These direct and indirect admissions reveal a truth that Khamenei desperately tries to conceal: the regime’s strategic depth was irreparably broken with the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria.
The scale of the blow dealt to the regime has significantly echoed within its military forces. Khamenei’s legitimacy, even among his loyalists, has drastically diminished, and his hollow and meaningless slogans cannot restore what has been lost. Many of the regime’s mercenaries, once drawn into battle with false promises of “resistance” and “victory,” are now confronted with the bitter reality of repeated defeats and sacrifices for the regime’s interests. This disillusionment is evident among the Basij forces, the IRGC, and even the regime’s diplomats. Even the regime’s highest-ranking diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister laments, “Syria has effectively exited the axis of resistance” (Source: Didban Iran news website, December 21).
Khamenei has tried to deny his regime’s deep crises and strategic defeats with speeches full of lies and deceit. However, the truth is that as the regime’s strategic depth eroded, trust in his leadership also sharply declined, leading to defections among his loyalists and forces.
This crisis, even reflected in regime media, demonstrates that the regime ruling Iran, given the accumulation of crises, domestic super-crises, and the spillover of regional and international crises internally, stands on the brink of a social explosion.
