In the past months, Iranian officials have been constantly talking about the need for a “big surgery” to save the regime. Regime president Ebrahim Raisi said in October, “The government and I would not hesitate to put our reputation on the line to carry out big surgeries and save the country’s economy.”
Now, the regime’s notion of “big surgeries” are slowly materializing, and they are nothing but more plans to suck the last wisps of life from Iran’s bankrupt economy, out of the pockets of millions of people who are already struggling with poverty.
One of these plans, which was introduced in Raisi’s budget bill for the year 2022 was the removal of the 42,000 rial-to-USD exchange rate on vital imports. The second, which recently leaked, is the plan to increase the price of gasoline.
According to various reports, the regime intends to change the pricing plan of gasoline and plans to launch a pilot project in the Qeshm and Kish islands. According to these reports, subsidized gasoline will be distributed based on population and not cars. People can then choose to buy their subsidized gasoline or sell it on the free market.
A spokesperson for Raisi’s government approved the experimental plan and said, “In Qeshm and Kish islands, the gasoline rations will be allocated to people instead of vehicles. Those who don’t have vehicles can have their own share and sell it to others at a suitable price. The price of gasoline will remain at the previous 15,000 rials for [a liter of] subsidized fuel and 30,000 rials for market-price gasoline, and it will not change from the current rates.”
It is worth noting that the regime is faced with at least a 50-percent budget deficit in the coming year and the change in gasoline pricing policy seems to be one of the tactics that the regime wants to use to cover its deficit. The plan will provide regime-affiliated entities who have wide access to the oil industry with secondary markets to sell gasoline at uncontrolled prices and make uncharted profits.
Why not just raise the price of gasoline? The regime has already gone down this path two years ago, in 2019, when the price of gasoline was officially tripled overnight. The result was a nationwide uprising that started with protest to gasoline prices and soon expanded to demands for the overthrow of the regime.
This time, the regime aims to avoid the turmoil it caused in 2019. Fereydoon Abbasi, a member of the Majlis (parliament) who spoke to the state-run ILNA news agency, said that “the mismanagement of November 2019 will not be repeated” and that the November 2019 price hike was “badly implemented.”
The regime’s plan to avoid the turmoil is the gradual rollout of the new pricing plan across the country. And at the same time, but indirectly selling gasoline through secondary markets, the regime aims to make huge profits without being blamed for the rise in the price of fuel.
According to the regime’s own experts, the plan will result in a ninefold increase in the price of fuel, and every liter of gasoline can reach up to 270,000 rials. This will in turn cause a surge in the price of other goods.
As the lives of the impoverished segments of society become harder and more difficult every day, the regime has shown no will for taking the slightest step to make their lives better. And this lack of will is reflected in the daily protests that are happening across Iran, by teachers, workers, government employees, farmers, and every walk of life in the Iranian society.
