On April 10, some 250 members of the Majlis (Parliament) wrote an open letter to Iranian regime president Ebrahim Raisi, in which they set conditions for the ongoing negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program and the revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement.
The requirements include legal guarantees approved by the U.S. Congress that Washington will not quit the agreement. The lawmakers are also demanding the rescinding of the snapback mechanism, the removal of existing sanctions, and guarantees that previous sanctions will not be reimposed. The Majlis members are also demanding access to all the regime’s frozen assets.
On the same day, Majlis speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, “The nuclear negotiations must have results that are guaranteed, long-lasting, and economically tangible.”
Mahmoud Abbaszadeh, the spokesperson for the Majlis National Security Commission, said, “We are pursuing the removal of all sanctions on companies, institutions, and individuals.”
At the same time, foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said, “The state has stood on its red lines and will continue to do so.” Without specifying what these red lines are, Amirabdollahian added, “We are looking to have all sanctions removed but in a way that is dignifying and lasting.”
And Raisi, who spoke at the regime’s exposition on the National Day of Nuclear Technology in Tehran on April 9, said, “Our knowledge and technology in the nuclear field is not reversible… our message from Tehran to Vienna is that we will not back off from the Iranian people’s nuclear rights… not even an iota.”
What is clear in the remarks of senior regime officials is that the regime is desperate to have sanctions lifted. But what is not clear are the red linesto which Raisi, Amirabdollahian, and other officials are referring.
What is being widely discussed in news reports and analyses about the talks is terrorist designation of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which has become a sticking point of the nuclear talks in Vienna.
Tehran demands the removal of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) from the U.S. list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) as part of the deal, which is unrelated to the nuclear talks and the regime nuclear program.
The delisting of the IRGC has become such an important issue that it has even caused disputes among the regime’s own officials. In a recent interview with the regime’s Channel One TV network, Amirabdollahian said that senior IRGC officials “constantly remind the foreign ministry to do whatever is needed for the country’s benefit” and “if the agreement is in the country’s interests, then do not prioritize the issue of the IRGC.”
Amirabdollahian’s remarks were immediately met with a backlash from senior officials and politicians with close ties with regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Keyhan daily, accused Amirabdollahian of implying that IRGC officials have surrendered and called on IRGC commanders to clarify and correct the foreign minister’s remarks. And MP Ali Khezrian slammed Amirabdollahian’s remarks as being against national interests and causing a divide between the people and the IRGC.
At the same time, politicians in the U.S. and in the Middle East are warning about the implications of delisting the IRGC, a move that will certainly exacerbate terrorism and chaos in the region.
Therefore, the regime is now faced with two conflicting needs. On the one hand, it is in dire need of having economic sanctions lifted, while on the other, it also needs to continue its export of terrorism and warmongering in the region, mainly through the IRGC and its proxies.
The geopolitical situation of the region and the current state of the talks have made it very hard for the regime to achieve both goals, as it did following the original 2015 nuclear agreement.
The U.S. diplomatic team has taken extra measures to provide the regime with concessions and satisfy it. According to reports, on March 23, the U.S. has proposed to delist the IRGC if the regime commits to de-escalation in the region and abandons plans to assassinate American officials. The regime responded by attacking Saudi oil facilities through the Houthis, its Yemeni terrorist proxies. Shortly after, the IRGC officially declared in a statement that its missile program and regional influence were a red line.
And according to a more recent report by Reuters, an Iranian diplomat said that Tehran had rejected a U.S. proposal to overcome the sticking point by keeping the IRGC Quds Force under FTO sanctions while delisting the IRGC as an entity.
Clearly, the regime can’t make compromise on its terrorist activities. Backing down on its warmongering in the region will, in the words of its own officials, bring the war within Iran’s borders, where millions of angry Iranians want nothing more than regime change. At the same time, the regime expects to have all sanctions lifted, even those that are related to its destabilizing activities in the region.
Meanwhile, Western states are faced with their own tough choice. Will they acknowledge the regime for the threats it poses to its own people, the region, and the world and adopt a firm policy, or will they continue to try to curb the regime’s provocative and belligerent activities through concessions?
