The third day of the eighth round of negotiations over the Iranian regime negotiations in Vienna ended with more of the same: little-or-no progress, expressions of concern over Tehran’s fast-moving uranium enrichment, and a date to continue talks next week.
Iran’s regime and some of its allies are expressing optimism over the progress of the talks. But other parties in the talks do not concur. U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that Tehran continues to “drag its feet.”
“The last couple rounds also started with new nuclear provocations and then were characterized by, in some cases, vague, unrealistic, unconstructive positions on the part of Iran,” he said during a phone briefing on Tuesday.
“Iran has, at best, been dragging its feet in the talks while accelerating its nuclear escalation. We’ve been very clear that that won’t work. Iran needs exercise restraint in its nuclear program and add real urgency in Vienna,” Price said.
On the other hand, European negotiators have expressed about the pace of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. After Iran’s atomic chief Mohammad Eslami suggested that Tehran would keep its uranium enrichment levels at up to 60 percent, European officials expressed concern about why the regime would need such levels of enrichment.
Negotiators from Britain, Germany, and France said on Tuesday that 60-percent enrichment was still “unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”
“Its increasing 60 percent stockpile is bringing Iran significantly closer to having fissile material, which could be used for nuclear weapons,” they said.
“This negotiation is urgent… We are clear that we are nearing the point where Iran’s escalation of its nuclear program will have completely hollowed out the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action],” negotiators from Britain, France, and Germany said in a statement, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal.
“That means we have weeks, not months, to conclude a deal before the JCPoA’s core non-proliferation benefits are lost,” they said.
Other reports indicate that Europeans are considering reimposing sanctions against Iran’s regime in case the talks fail and Tehran refuses to roll back dangerous steps it has taken in its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials and state-media are torn between calling the negotiations a success or deadlock. On the one hand, regime officials are claiming to have made great progress in imposing their demands on their western counterparts. On the other hand, some state media are warning against backing down on conditions such as refraining from discussing the regime’s ballistic missile program because it would be a “humiliating retreat” for the Raisi administration. At the same time, other experts are warning about doubling down on demands and not cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which could result in Iran’s nuclear program being referred to the UN Security Council.
At this point, Iran’s regime has made three key demands in the talks:
1- All U.S. sanctions must be lifted and no future sanctions must be imposed on the regime. This includes sanctions that are not related to its nuclear program.
2- Guarantees that no future administration will withdraw from the nuclear agreement.
3- Guarantees that companies that will enter trade deals with Iran will not exit Iran’s markets and will not be subjected to sanctions.
With these demands, Tehran has pushed the talks into a quasi-deadlock. Iran’s problems go far beyond its nuclear program, and experts are pointing out that Tehran’s demands are virtually impossible to meet.
First, the regime’s opaque financial system, funding of terrorism, and network of money laundering activities make it very difficult to conduct financial transactions with Iranian companies, even if all sanctions are lifted. Added to that is the fact that behind a large portion of Iran’s financial channels is the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which is notoriously renowned for its illicit activities. Even without financial hurdles, it will be hard for companies to enter trade deals with a state that is drowning in financial corruption and illicit activities.
Second, by demanding a guarantee of no future sanctions, the regime is effectively demanding the world to turn a blind eye to its terrorist activities, human rights violations, and ballistic missile program. The 2015 nuclear deal and the chaos that ensued in the Middle East region in its wake provide ample proof of what happens when the regime’s belligerence is left unchecked.
And finally, unless the nuclear agreement is approved as a treaty by the US Congress, there is no guarantee that a future administration will not revoke it. And unless it contains solid and explicit guarantees that Iran’s regime will not obtain a nuclear bomb, the agreement isn’t likely to get the approval of lawmakers, which will reduce it to an executive agreement.
Iran’s regime is stuck between complying with the demands of the international community or continuing down the path of belligerence and confrontation. Both paths will have consequences that will prove to be detrimental to the regime’s tyrannical and brutal rule. And as time runs out, Tehran is fast sinking in a quagmire of its own making.