Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, January 28, 2020—As Iran’s crises unprecedentedly escalate, the mullahs are pushed into much more isolation on the international front. Given the recent developments, the Iranian regime is experiencing its toughest era. The elimination of the chief of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force (IRGC-QF) Qassem Soleimani and the downing of the Ukrainian passenger airliner with the IRGC anti-aircraft system placed the mullahs in a dangerous condition both in the region or across the globe.
Despite international calls for an investigation over the airliner crash, which disastrously resulted in the death of 176 passengers abroad, the Iranian regime still refuses to send the black box to the manufacturing company.
On January 25, the deputy Prime Minister of Canada Chrystia Freeland announced that her country “will not stop” until it has answers on the crash of the Ukraine international airlines flight PS752 by the Iranian regime. She said that Canada wants a “real, independent” analysis of the airplane’s black box, along with transparency on what exactly happened. “I am confident we will get those answers because Canada is relentlessly focused on getting them and we will not stop until we get them,” Freeland added.
#European Powers, #EU3 Trigger Dispute Mechanism is a step in the right direction &the EU3 should complete it W further measures, chairman @Mohaddessin said.https://t.co/z21PYTQRPf#IranDeal#IranProtests#FreeIran2020@eu_eeas @Europarl_EN— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 14, 2020
Additionally, the European signatories of the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), triggered the planned dispute mechanism in the accord. This matter took place after the Iranian regime’s statement about taking a fifth step toward reducing its obligations to the nuclear deal. In fact, the mullahs compelled the European states who vehemently sought to preserve the JCPOA to revise their policy in this respect and be far from the regime and move closer to the U.S. economic pressures policy. In such circumstances, Iran’s regime has been more isolated, and its economy is placed on the brink of collapse.
Humiliating Response to Zarif’s Plea for Negotiation
Declarations by the Iranian regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the president Hassan Rouhani and his cabinet, the IRGC commanders, and other officials suggested that they absolutely would not pursue new negotiations at least until after the U.S. presidential elections. However, despite all the mentioned blows to the regime, officials didn’t conceal their eagerness to carry out new negotiations. “I never dismiss the possibility of the people change their behavior and realize the truth. It is not important whom sits in the White House, his behavior is important… We are still in negotiating table… Someday [the U.S.] will be compelled to offset [damages that they have made] on the ‘Iranian people.’ We have a lot of patience!” the regime’s foreign minister Javad Zarif said in response to a question from Der Spiegel’s reporter about the possibility of negotiations with the U.S. after the killing of Qassem Soleimani.
Zarif’s response raised the anger of Khamenei’s supporters. “Trump frankly announced that he personally issued the order of Soleimani’s death. What dose Zarif pursue from negotiating with the murderer of Soleimani?... To whom does he serve as the minister of affairs… what is supposed to be discussed and negotiated with the U.S.?... [Does Zarif want] to negotiate over stopping the missile industry and leaving the support for the resistance front?” Khamenei’s representative in Keyhan newspaper Hossein Shariatmadari wrote on January 26.
Shariatmadari also mentioned Khamenei’s remark in his Friday prayers sermon on January 17, quoting him as saying, “We have no concerns about negotiations, of course, not with the U.S., but we have no concerns about negotiations with others.”
Khamenei’s advisor Ali Akbar Velayati addressed Zarif in his newspaper called Farhikhtegan, writing, “How can you sit on the negotiating table with someone who killed your brother?... How will the resistance groups react when they see Tehran turned a blind eye to [the killing of Qassem Soleimani]?”
“Negotiations with the murderer of Qassem Soleimani,” Vatan Emruz, another pro-Khamenei newspaper titled, and it blamed Zarif for signaling talks with the U.S.
The IRGC-owned website Javan attacked Zarif and published a piece titled, “Wish you had admired the blood of [Qassem Soleimani].”
On the other hand, the U.S. president rejected Zarif’s plea for negotiations with preconditions and tweeted in Persian, “Iran’s foreign minister demands negotiations with the United States, but he would like sanctions to be lifted first. No, thanks.”
Two decades ago, the regime’s then-president Mohammad Khatami revealed that Khamenei is the main decision-maker in the Iranian regime. “The president [in the ‘Islamic Republic’ regime] is as a waiter,” Khatami said in the 1990s. Also, Zarif time and again announced that the regime’s foreign policies are adopted by Khamenei alone. In this respect, Zarif was never able to signal for negotiations with the U.S. without the supreme leader’s permission. However, Khamenei routinely tried to escape from the consequences of talks with the “great Satan” by raising the issue through Zarif. Additionally, Khamenei is placed in harsh conditions while the regime has lost its second most powerful official in tandem with facing the toughest economic conditions. In these conditions, he has to make the toughest decisions. However, he will be the loser whether he enters new negotiations or dismisses them.
In truth, Khamenei would have to leave his long-time adventurism in the region and acquiesce to demands of international community about stopping missile projects, exporting terrorism, and funding terrorist proxies if he accepts negotiations with the U.S. On the other hand, by rejecting the talks, he would deal with more economic pressures and isolation in the international scene. In this regard, the regime is wholeheartedly terrified by a potential new round of protests such as what it experienced in November and January. However, the regime will dramatically diminish in both scenarios, whether acquiescing to foreign pressures or insisting on aggression, which paves the way for the Iranian people to cry out their genuine desire for regime change and rise up to establish a democratic government.