Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, October 31, 2019—During an inauguration and graduation ceremony held at the Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Academy on Wednesday, Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Iranian regime, broke a two-week silence on the intensifying crises that have been engulfing his regime in the Middle East region.
Khamenei’s remarks contained three key points:
First, he expressed his concern about the critical state of the Iranian regime at several points during his speech. “The enemy is trying to disrupt the calculations of authorities, thought leaders and the people so that they can’t distinguish their true interests and those of the country,” Khamenei said, adding that the people should not be affected by the “enemies’ destructive plots.”
This remark was in fact Khamenei’s admission to the turmoil in his regime and the faltering confidence of his own troops. In another recent speech at a gathering of Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commanders, Khamenei had reiterated his concerns over defections in the ranks of the IRGC.
Interestingly, in his latest remarks, Khamenei refrained from making reference to any of the crises that his regime is grappling with, such as the continued disputes over the ratification of FATF’s anti–money laundering and terrorism financing bills, negotiations with the U.S., walking away from the nuclear deal, the suffocating economic conditions, social crises, etc.
Instead, Khamenei stressed the importance of the security of the regime. Khamenei tried to portray his regime’s security crisis as another “conspiracy by the enemies” and warned against the “plans of the enemies to cause strife and undermine security.”
Second, Khamenei expressed concern over continued uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon, two countries that his regime has overtly occupied through proxy terrorists. Again, Khamenei described these uprisings as the enemies’ plans as well as the plotting of countries of the region. “The enemy aims to disrupt the structures of these countries and create a vacuum,” Khamenei said.
Third, Khamenei expressed concern about the future of his regime when talking about the countrywide protests in Iraq and Lebanon. “The enemies had similar plans for Iran,” Khamenei said. In this regard, Khamenei addressed his regime’s troops and said, “All of the people, especially the armed forces, must be responsible and stay aware.”
Speaking in the deceitful language of the mullahs, Khamenei described the uprisings as “sedition,” saying, “Keep your eyes on the enemy and watch its every move… the armed forces must be wary of sedition and make the necessary preparations and formations to deal with sedition.”
The fact that Khamenei is relating uprisings and protests to the “enemy” shows the desperate state of his regime. The Shah dictatorship, which preceded the tyranny of the mullahs, also resorted to the same kind of rhetoric in its final phases.
Now, Khamenei, whose regime is faced with an existential crisis, is trying to claim that there are no developments against his regime inside Iran, Iraq or Lebanon unless there’s a foreign enemy behind them. But what’s happening in the streets paints a totally different picture…
More worries about defections
In his remarks, Khamenei alluded to the wear-and-tear in the structure of his regime, defections in his ranks, and the faltering morale of his troops. And again, he associated them with the “conspiracies and plans of the enemy.” This isn’t the first time that Khamenei is expressing concern over the defections. On October 2, in a session with IRGC commanders, Khamenei has explicitly admitted that defections were becoming an issue for his regime.
Khamenei’s concerns over the state of his troops are especially significant as his regime is futilely trying to maintain its hold on Iraq and Lebanon, which it considers its “strategic depth.” A look at the extraordinary sums the Iranian regime has spent in Iraq and Lebanon is enough to appreciate the blow that the regime has received from the continued demonstrations in these two countries. And without a solid security apparatus, the regime has little leverage to protect its evil interests in these two countries.
Khamenei’s recipe for terrorism and suppression
In his remarks, Khamenei gave recommendations for Iraq and Lebanon. “The people of Iraq and Lebanon should know that their priority should be security. The peoples of these countries should know that their demands can only be met in the context of legal structures,” Khamenei said.
Thus, Khamenei once again revealed his evil nature as the godfather of terrorism and the supporter of corrupt governments. He proved that he is the enemy of Iraqi protesters and he is in full support of the Iraqi regime, just as he was behind the brutal Assad regime against the uprisings of the Syrian people.
It is clear that by “Iraqi and Lebanese people,” Khamenei means his surrogates, the likes of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and National Security Advisor Faleh Fayyadh, as well as his terrorist proxies such as the Popular Mobilization Forces and the terrorist Lebanese Hezbollah and its commander Hassan Nasrollah.
Khamenei speaks of the “demands” of the Iraqi and Lebanese people while his regime is constantly suppressing the most basic demands of the Iranian people. Regime officials constantly say that people have “legitimate demands,” but as soon as workers, teachers, truck drivers, etc. protest for their most basic rights, such as unpaid wages, they are fired from work, arrested and tortured.
Interestingly, while Khamenei recommends the Iraqi and Lebanese people to work in the context of “legal structures,” the people of both countries have risen up against these very legal structures and consider them the main source of their grievances. In the streets of both countries, people are calling for the ouster of the Iranian regime and all the politicians who are affiliated with Tehran’s mullahs.
The great change
Developments in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and countries of the region hint at great changes being on the way. The uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon are the evident facets of this great change. But in Iran, the great change is happening as well, as protests continue to rage across all segments of Iranian society. Under such circumstances, Khamenei is faced with an unsolvable dilemma: remain silent and show his weakness or speak up and express his fears.