Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, August 10, 2021—After 42 years of rule under the mullahs, Iran’s society is faced with more than 60 million people below the poverty line and a giant inflation. Unemployment in Iran has reached the brink of crisis. Economic growth and production have dipped below zero. The situation is so critical that most experts are warning regime leaders about the social consequences of this situation and the potential protests it might trigger.
The Iranian working class and its retirees and families comprise nearly 48 million people, more than half the population. The continuous increase of inflation and high prices and the rapid growth of liquidity have emptied people’s tables. The poverty line is estimated at 100 million rials (about $400), but workers’ wages at most are a quarter of it.
At the end of each year, there is dispute between the regime-approved representatives of the working class on the one hand, and government officials and private-sector employers on the other to determine next year’s wages. Last year, however, the dispute ended with a few percent increase in workers’ wages. After tight debates, the basic wage finally reached 26 million rials (about $104), a little over a quarter of the poverty line.
Rampant inflation
Seyyed Ali Madadzadeh, who has been working as an advisor to the economic deputy of the Program and Budget Organization since 2018, says about the crisis of rampant inflation: “Iran’s economy in 2021 is at more risk than ever of growing liquidity and rising inflation. The current government’s willingness to spend more for making good memories and the future government’s fascination with raising spending to deliver on its many promises is the biggest threat. Today, the most important economic issue is inflation. In general, the situation of the country’s economy such as sanctions, inflation and stagflation are like they were in 2013, the beginning of [the Rouhani] government, and in terms of economic and social indicators, the situation is much worse.”
“In recent years, at least four strategic mistakes have been made, which have completely damaged the country’s economy. Artificially keeping the exchange rate low, destructive manipulation of stock market, capital escape, and budget deficits have led to rising liquidity, each of which has dealt a severe blow to the economy, and the bitter result has been rapid inflation,” Madadzadeh continued. “The budget deficit, liquidity growth, inflation, and the negative business atmosphere made 2020 one of the worst economic years in the country, and policymakers not only did not help but they made things worse.”
Like many other experts, Madadzadeh believes: “All these bad events and the cross-cutting crises we are facing now are due to the strategic mistakes of the past. But the main danger is not the chicken and wheat market, but the most important issue is rising inflation.”
Playing with fire
Another regime expert is Massoud Nili, who constantly warns of the deteriorating situation and the sequence of crises and super-economic challenges, especially the unstoppable rising inflation, and in the end, he has no hope that anyone will pay attention to the concerns he raises. “Ebrahim Raisi’s government does not have a big playing field in the economy and is not in a position to implement different tactics. The most accessible thing to do, however, is to increase liquidity, which greatly increases inflation. It’s like playing with fire,” Nili said, according to an August 5 report by the Tejaratefarda daily.
“In fact, the year when the first half is the end of one president’s term and the second half is the beginning of the next government is the most dangerous period for the budget,” Nili added.
The outcome
It is worth noting that the 2010s ended with all its tragedies, a decade in which the Iranian people went through difficult experiences. However, its economic crises remain unsolved and unfinished. The superchallenges are transferred 2021. But from now, the regime’s officials and experts have no hope of improving the situation. The tables of the Iranian people are still empty. Covid-19 take lives every day and unemployment and homelessness are endless.
Now, on the flipside of all this crime and corruption, there is a society whose slogans are “death to the dictator” and “death to Ali Khamenei,” the regime’s supreme leader. And as the people of Iran know, the real solution to all the problems and difficulties is the overthrow of the ruling dictatorship.
