Analysis by PMOI/MEK
May 11, 2019 - Iran’s new approach to the entire nuclear dilemma, as described by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of being a step by step exit from the nuclear deal – commonly known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – has left even some of the regime’s own elements and pundits gravely concerned.
In an interview with irdiplomacy.ir, a state-run news and analysis website, Ali Bigdeli, a political pundit close to regime President Hassan Rouhani’s so-called “moderate” faction, describes how the U.S. has created a regional coalition and warns about steps that could put Europe on the side of America.
“If the European Union, especially important European countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are considered in the same camp, everything, even military tensions, are possible. As I said before, chances are that our dossier in the United Nations Security Council will be put under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.”
“Iran isn’t under normal political, diplomatic, economic, and even security/military conditions,” he said. “Unfortunately, every day we put additional limitations on the country and by implementing these propaganda policies we are going to entrap the country with further sanctions every day which will be very hard to remove in the future.”
Considering the crises facing Tehran, he said, “To surpass the country’s [current problems] we have no other way than to negotiate.”
The Fararu website, also close to Rouhani faction, voiced concerns over the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) upcoming report after Iran announced it won’t sell its surplus enriched uranium and heavy water. “After stopping portion of Iran’s obligations, all eyes are on the agency’s next report about Iran’s compliance. Will the new report of IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano announce that Iran’s enriched uranium and heavy water reserves have exceeded the permitted levels of the JCPOA?”
Mohsen Jalilvand, a political pundit close to Rouhani’s faction, reiterates that Iran’s problem is with the U.S. and not Europe. “I don’t know why Rouhani wrote letters to Europe, Russia, and China?”
The nuclear deal between the 5+1 countries and Iran was reached under the Obama administration in 2015.
He then expressed concerns about Iran’s new approach. “Iran exiting the JCPOA has consequences of which the most important is that UN Security Council resolutions will be implemented. Keep in mind that these resolutions have not been canceled under the JCPOA, they were merely suspended. With Iran exiting the JCPOA, these resolutions will be implemented again and international sanctions will return. This situation can draw closer the possibility of war.”
Mehdi Motaharnia, a university professor and political pundit, mocked Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei personally without naming him. “In his election campaign, [U.S. President] Donald Trump promised to tear apart the JCPOA. Back then, [Iranian] officials said that if the U.S. tears the JCPOA apart, we are going to burn it. I believe that ever since Iran has entered a war of prestige and saving face with the U.S… What Mr. Rouhani and the Supreme National Security Council announced is along the same line,” he added.
“Iran can respond to these provocations and continue the war of prestige and facesaving, but we should consider where our path eventually lead us to? Do we follow the ‘standing with clenched fists’ scenario or the ‘standing with the white flag’ one?” he asked.
He then gloomily warned that “any of these scenarios will have high costs.”
On the opposite side, elements of Khamenei’s faction express satisfaction with this new stance but consider it not enough.
Mehdi Mottahari, close to intelligence circles of Khamenei’s faction, writes on Twitter: “Today, something important happened. Now, the U.S. and Europe know that the short-term cost of their current path can be the JCPOA’s full disintegration. The first steps could be made stronger, but this isn’t bad either. Now, it is vital that the song of negotiating with the U.S. isn’t sung again and the next steps are taken stronger.”
Rouhani camp’s concerns about the new approach by the ruling theocracy in Iran towards the Iranian nuclear dilemma is very well grounded.
If Iran stops complying with JCPOA provisions, even European countries so keen on lucrative business with Iran see no other option but to close in on the U.S. approach, rendering even further international isolation and sanctions for Tehran.
The Islamic Republic’s calculation that threats and a show of force and determination will help to further drive a so-much-sought wedge between the U.S. and its European allies is misplaced. However, maybe the sanctions have already cut to the bone of the corrupt ruling mullahs in Tehran and they see no other way than gradual escalation.
Furthermore, if the IAEA reports Iran in violation of the JCPOA and Iran is referred to the UN Security Council under Chapter 7, the mullahs will suffer under grave consequences.
That is why Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, chair of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) Foreign Relations and Security Commission, had words of warnings. “Iran shouldn’t announce its exit from any treaty. That is what the U.S. is seeking… As one possible solution, we should negotiate with the IAEA and JCPOA members to enrich uranium at 20 percent and more.”
Rouhani’s minions are not the only regime figures worried about the current situation. Khamenei’s thugs, whose fraudulent cries of standing firm has rendered even the skies deaf, also cannot hide their concerns at times.
“It is possible that every minute a European country claims the JCPOA has been violated and through the snapback process, all of the previous [UN Security Council] resolutions are restored, triggering a return of United Nations sanctions,” one Khamenei pundit warns
All the while Khamenei had previously reassured his followers, “There won’t be war.” Even he has put the regime’s security forces on alert.