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The Iranian regime’s weakening grip on power

Ahead of the anniversary of Iran’s 2022 uprising, the regime went every last mile to ensure that protests would not take place. According to reports, the regime was on full alert in Greater Tehran, and at least 23,000 IRGC and Basij forces and 21,000 State Security Forces were present. According to some reports, in some areas of Tehran, security forces would not even tolerate a congregation of three people.

The security presence was so heavy that, Rahim Ghomishi, a retired IRGC officer wrote on the Saham News channel on September 16, “What I saw with my own eyes in the streets of Tehran today, I would not be exaggerating to say that if a foreign state had occupied Tehran and Iran, there wouldn’t be so many security forces in the streets to convince the people that the country has been occupied and resistance is futile.”

However, the brave people took to the streets and defied the regime with anti-regime rallies. Protests were reported in more than a dozen cities, and in some locations, protesters clashed with security forces sent to quell their demonstrations.

On September 15, the people of Zahedan held a large protest rally after Friday prayers, where they chanted slogans against regime leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). On the eve of September 16, nightly protests were held in several cities, including Tehran and Mashhad, where people chanted, “Death to the dictator!” and “Death to Khamenei!”

On September 16, the anniversary of the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, the regime continued to ratchet up its security measures, especially in Saqqez, Mahsa’s hometown, where security forces surrounded her parents’ home and blocked paths that led to the cemetery where she is interred.

In his memo, Rahim Ghomishi acknowledged that while the regime was trying to create an environment of fear, he saw “brave girls walking in groups, some with headscarves and some without, some with their mothers, some with their fathers, and others with their friends. Their spirits were so high, they weren’t bothered. I was shaking from fear but they were laughing loudly in front of the security forces.”

The regime’s own media also acknowledged that protests had taken place despite claims by some officials that nothing had happened. On September 17, the state-run IRNA news agency admitted that “young people have gathered in some streets in Tehran. If we add the eastern and northern parts of the city, it clearly indicates an inflammatory and explosive atmosphere in Tehran.”

The Mashregh News website, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization, reported the arrest of 160 individuals in Tehran. The commander of law enforcement in West Azerbaijan also said, “137 individuals involved in disturbing public opinion on social media in the province have been identified and arrested.”

Also, on September 21, the state-run Bahar news website, reported the arrest of 600 women in Tehran alone on the anniversary of the uprising.

Other news outlets reported of the arrest of hundreds of people in Tehran, Karaj, Marvdasht, Marivan, Sanandaj, Divandarreh, and the cities of Western Azarbaijan province.

But even the regime’s mass arrest of protesters did not cause the people to relent in their rallies. On September 17, despite the regime’s repressive measures, the people continued their protests. On the same day, the regime continued security measures in many cities, dispatching security forces in public places and sensitive areas to prevent protests. The families of arrested protesters in Tehran gathered in front of a police station to demand clarification for the situation of their loved ones. Instead of answering them, the regime dispatched security forces to suppress them. But the families remained late into the night and demanded answers from authorities.

The glorious resistance of the people and the regime’s failure to quell their desire freedom hints at more uprisings to come in the next months. As Iranians mark the beginning of the new academic year, the regime is faced with a fresh dilemma. Last year, university and high school students were among the main drivers of anti-regime protests. The regime has taken extreme measures to purge universities of professors and students that took part in the protests or are not aligned with the regime’s policies and ideology. However, these measures will only lead the simmering society toward another explosion.

It is only a matter of time before another uprising erupts in Iran. And the regime’s measures to prevent it are proving more futile by the day.

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