On March 31, 2025, Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei referred to the rapid pace of developments, stating that “events are happening at a dizzying speed,” and spoke of an imminent threat closer than the jugular vein to him and his regime. He warned that enemies “are thinking about” “instigating sedition inside the country, like they did in some previous years.”
This alarm is raised against the backdrop of the regime’s economic bankruptcy and the livelihood crisis, which, after four decades of criminality and plunder, are more evident than ever on people’s dinner tables, turning society into a powder keg.
State-affiliated media outlets reflect the dire situation with headlines such as “Will Iran’s Economy Collapse in 1404 [March 2025-March 2026]?” (Ensaf News, March 30, 2025) and questions like “Why is there no plan to save the industry?” (Rouydad24, March 26, 2025).
Regime-affiliated experts predict frightening months ahead. One analyst, Imani Rad, spoke on March 30, 2025, of a “dangerous point” in the near future where “the government loses its ability to control crises,” resulting in “social tensions and internal unrest,” ultimately leading “to a stage of instability and collapse” of the regime. Another analyst, Heydari, asked on March 26, 2025, “Why have we reached today’s dark situation?” expressing concern about the “severe market recession” and the lack of a “clear plan” to salvage it in the “coming year.”
Meanwhile, on March 29, 2025, the regime’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in a meeting with provincial governors, urged them to prevent Khamenei’s slogan for the new year, focusing on “Production,” from remaining just an empty slogan. Pezeshkian, after “wishing a long life with dignity and blessings for the Supreme Leader,” said: “The slogan that the Supreme Leader announced this year, all governors must ensure it doesn’t remain just a slogan in speeches. If we want to produce now, the first thing they ask for is energy. If we don’t have energy, we keep saying we support them, but they say, give us electricity! Last year, unfortunately, we couldn’t provide energy to our producers, and we cut off electricity to factories, cut off their fuel and gas. If we can’t provide support, even if we have the will, when we don’t provide electricity or gas, well, production won’t happen!”
This dire situation forced Khamenei to warn about an uprising of the hungry on March 31. Immediately afterward, the state-affiliated Shargh newspaper’s website (March 31) made the threat clearer with the bold headline “Bread Riots in 1404 [2025-2026],” writing: “The system faces major challenges… Political observers consider the occurrence of widespread protests in 1404 more likely than ever and refer to the ‘bread riot’ scenario as a serious danger. The experience of the years 2019 and 2022 has shown that whenever the internal situation reaches a crisis point, a social or cultural spark can pave the way for widespread protests. In conditions where people struggle with inflation, economic recession, and reduced purchasing power, (any factor) can act as a catalyst, turning potential economic protests into a broad protest movement… adding to public anger and increasing protesters’ cohesion. (The situation is such that in 1404)… any extremist action could be the spark that turns economic and livelihood crises into a social explosion.”