In recent days, Iranian regime president Ebrahim Raisi has tried but failed to downplay his regime’s overreliance on Russia’s support. Raisi went as far as to deny the “look to the East” strategy, declared and endorsed by regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei to engage in strategic alliances with states such as Russia and China.
In remarks to the Assembly of Experts on March 8, Raisi said, “Our position is to have a balanced look.”
Earlier on March 5, in a press conference in Golestan province, Raisi said, “We are looking at all countries in the world.”
His remarks come after he explicitly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed hope that “what is happening will be in the interests of nations and the region.” Other regime officials, including Khamenei, refrained from condemning the attack and laid the blame on Ukraine, the United States, and NATO.
Following these remarks, the regime has faced a backlash from the Iranian population, who do not support the unjustified war that has caused numerous civilian casualties and much damage to the Ukrainian nation. Even the regime’s own analysts and officials have expressed alarm over the regime aligning itself with Putin and effectively becoming a satellite state of Russia.
The current dilemma that the regime faces now has been years in the making and rooted in Khamenei’s strategy to maintain his aggressive policies at the cost of sacrificing the country’s interests.
The “look to the East” policy
For years, Khamenei has been endorsing what he calls the “look to the East” policy.
On February 18, 2018, Khamenei said, “In foreign policy, our priority is East over West, neighbors over distant countries, nations, and countries that have more in common with us over others.”
On November 16, 2018, Khamenei reiterated, “Our look must be mainly on the East; looking at the West and Europe will only waste our time, bring us trouble, render us smaller. We must look toward the East; there are countries that can help us; we can face them on equal grounds; we can help them; they can help us; we can have scientific exchange with them.”
Of course, Khamenei had also been speaking of his eastward strategy in earlier years. For example, in a 2016 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he said, “Our government and nation are looking to expand relations with independent and reliable countries like China.”
The shift toward becoming aligned with Eastern powers such as Russia and China came as the regime faced increasing pressure over its terrorist activities, funding of terrorist groups, development of ballistic missiles, and the nuclear weapons program. While none of these programs are in line with the interests of the Iranian people, they are vital to the regime’s survival and its dreams to dominate the Middle East region. Therefore, it relied on the support of China and Russia to keep it afloat as its tensions with the international community escalated.
Meanwhile, Khamenei consistently stressed that the “look toward the East” strategy was not in conflict with the regime’s original “neither West nor East” slogan, which dated back to the Cold War era and pertained that Iran’s regime would maintain its independence and not bow to the whims of foreign powers.
Locked in the East
The past few years have made it clear that contrary to the claims made by Khamenei and other officials, in the process of turning toward the East, the regime has sold Iran’s economic and political independence to countries that neither have the interest in the Iranian people in mind nor count Iran’s regime as their equal.
Today, the regime is selling the country’s oil at low prices to China in exchange for goods that have caused severe damage to domestic production. Meanwhile, the regime is in the midst of signing a 25-year agreement that will give China an even bigger share of Iran’s economy with very little in exchange.
At the same time, the regime is negotiating another “strategic agreement” with Russia, which again has been mocked as the Second Turkmenchay Treaty, in which the Qajar monarchy turned large swaths of Iranian territory over to the Russian empire in the 19th century.
And as the war in Ukraine is causing major shifts in the global geopolitical landscape, it became even more evident that the regime has lost control and autonomy over its own politics.
In his remarks on Russia’s war of occupation against Ukraine on March 1, Khamenei did not once mention Russia as the aggressor but made ample references to the U.S. and NATO.
Meanwhile, as much as Tehran has been faithful to Moscow, the latter did not return the favor. As Russia faces a new slate of sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, it has resorted to a new powerplay in the ongoing talks in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear program, predicting any agreement on its being able to continue doing business with Iran’s regime. Moscow wants to make sure that Iran’s markets give it some breathing space as it becomes more isolated. And again, Iran’s regime, which has put its full faith in Russia and China’s support in the nuclear talks, has refrained from making official objections.
As Khamenei has locked his gaze to the East, his regime has become locked in the politics and interests of eastern power hubs.
The common denominator of all dictators
Of course, had the regime relied on the Iranian people, it would not have found itself in this situation. Iran has everything it needs to be a thriving, self-sufficient economy. It does not need nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or terrorist groups to maintain its hold on power. It does not need to spend billions of dollars on security forces and surveillance technology while its people are struggling to make ends meet. But when your people become your main enemy, then you inevitably need to find support from elsewhere.
In a meeting with Iranian scientists in November 2018, in which he further explained his “look to the East” strategy, Khamenei mocked the monarchic dictatorships that preceded the mullahs’ rule as incompetent rulers that “did not care for the interest of the people but bent backward for foreign powers.”
Today, as Khamenei’s regime bends backward to serve the economic and political interests of Russia and China, it has become undeniable that the mullahs are no different from their predecessors. Rulers who don’t serve their people end up becoming puppets of foreign powers.
