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Regime change in Iran will be key to stabilizing oil markets

The protesters want one thing: regime change in Iran
The protesters want one thing: regime change in Iran

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

 

Iran, July 17, 2018 Oil prices are seeing wild fluctuations and new U.S. sanctions against the Iranian regime start to take effect. However, this is a situation that is largely due to the undeniably evil nature of the Iranian regime, which makes instability in oil markets its inevitable byproduct.

Officially, Iran has around 150 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 1180 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. And that doesn’t account for the many areas yet to be explored, which means the volumes of recoverable resources in Iran could be much higher. This means that any major event that takes place in Iran will have a direct effect on the price of oil and the oil market.

In the late 70s, as Iran was in the throes of a revolution that would see the overthrow of the Shah regime and the rise of the mullahs in power, the price of oil surged from $56 to $100 in little more than a year.

Until recently, the Iranian regime was exporting about 3.8 million barrels of oil per day. Following the U.S.’s exit from the Iran nuclear deal and the restoration of sanctions against the regime for its support of terrorism, it ballistic and nuclear weapons program and its brutal human rights abuses, analysts believe that figure might fall to below than 1 million. The U.S.’s declared goal is to remove all oil exports on the regime to prevent it from funding its nefarious activities.

Other countries in the region and across the world are moving forward to fill the gap left after Iran’s oil exports are slashed. But that is a temporary solution and will put a lot of strain on the countries that are bearing the brunt of the reduction of oil exports.

But the past years have proven that Iran’s oil market will remain unstable as long as the current regime remains in power. Following the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015, sanctions against the Iranian regime’s oil exports were lifted and the regime was able to increase its exports. However, any wise observer knew that it would only be a matter of time before the regime would run afoul of international norms and bring the wrath of international powers upon itself. The main reason is that the regime is using its oil income, which accounts for its main source of revenue, mainly to fund its terrorist activities, its missile development programs and its illicit and clandestine nuclear program. Therefore, any increase in oil exports by the Iranian regime will directly translate into warfare in the region and threat to world peace and stability. That’s why despite the 2015 sanctions relief, many large companies and countries were reluctant to invest in Iran’s oil sector.

The sanctions against the regime will undoubtedly put heavy strain and pressure against its nefarious activities. But the only way to avoid the repetition of past cycles is to support regime change in Iran. A government that is focused on building its economy and improving the lives of its citizens won’t spend its oil income on fueling wars in the region. This is something that is increasingly evident in the slogans that Iranians are chanting in the streets, which condemn the regime for squandering the country’s wealth on its regional adventurism.

Currently, Iran is in turmoil again. Fed up with the corruption and tyranny of their government, Iranians have taken to the streets and are protesting in every corner of the country despite the regime’s heavy security presence and violent crackdown on all forms of dissent. While many analysts and the proponents of appeasement with the Iranian regime blame sanctions for the economic problems of Iran, the people of Iran have no illusions. They clearly know and make it clear that all problems in Iran are rooted in the evil nature of the ruling regime.

The protesters want one thing: regime change in Iran. And that, as the Iranian opposition has been saying for four decades, is the solution to the problems of the Iranian people and the world.

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