Upset Vote Reshapes Iraq

By Margaret Coker
The Wall Street Journal, Baghdad,  March 27, 2010 – Ayad Allawi’s predominantly Sunni alliance won Iraq’s national election, narrowly edging out Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s list to become the largest bloc in the country’s next parliament, and kicking off a scrum among political and religious blocs to form a majority government.
The Allawi upset threatens to end the lock on power that Iraq’s majority Shiites have enjoyed since 2003 after decades of oppression under the Sunni-led government of Saddam Hussein, and could severely test the country’s fragile institutions.
In the two weeks between the March 7 election and the vote tallies Friday, Shiite politicians warned of violence should their parties lose the election.
The Election in Iraq
In a hastily convened news conference, Mr. Maliki didn’t accept defeat. The incumbent repeated an earlier demand for a manual recount of the ballots, citing suspicions of fraud.
However, he also said his bloc would follow the legal procedures in place to challenge the results announced by the Iraqi electoral commission. According to the Iraqi electoral process, candidates have a three-day period to lodge complaints before the Supreme Court ratifies the results.
The preliminary results announced Friday show Mr. Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc winning 91 seats in the 325-member parliament to 89 seats for Mr. Maliki’s State of Law party. The country’s other Shiite alliance won 70 seats, enough to add up to nearly a majority for either of the other groups-making them likely kingmakers in a coalition government.
In a raucous victory celebration at his home in Baghdad, Mr. Allawi jumped and kissed his supporters who had gathered with a traditional band and dancers to celebrate their win. Car loads of cheering supporters braved the pouring rain, clogging the neighborhood streets.
He said there would be ’no red lines’ ruling out politicians his bloc would invite to join a coalition.
’We are open to all political blocs without any exception’ provided they take ’a national and secular attitude,’ said Mr. Allawi, himself a secular Shiite who formed a partnership with leading Sunni figures.
As the political slate with the largest number of seats,Mr. Allawi’s group will have the first shot at forming a government.
Negotiations are expected to take several weeks as various alliances cut deals over ministerial portfolios and contentious issues, such as which ethnic group will be awarded the country’s ceremonial presidency.
Most analysts find the horse-trading too complex to predict yet. The two leading parties, the largely Sunni group Iraqiya and the Shiite bloc State of Law, have enough votes to form an overwhelming coalition if they combine.
But in the weeks since the election, as the race appeared even and the two groups began reaching out to smaller parties, aides to both leaders shunned one another. They said privately that they were unlikely to combine forces, given their leaders’ contentious relations.
Mr. Maliki could also lead a government of a grand alliance of Shiites, but there is bad blood among those leaders too.
Mr. Allawi, meantime, has strong ties to veteran Kurdish leaders, but their votes would not be enough-and it could be difficult for him to pick off any Shiite groups to put him over the top.
Washington is closely watching the transition of power, ahead of the planned withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq this summer. Political disagreements between Shiite and Sunnis and a boycott by Sunnis of the 2005 national election ushered in more than two years of bloody internecine violence.
As the country awaited the results, Iraqi security forces were on high alert much of the day, and Baghdad streets were largely empty.
In noon prayers, religious leaders appealed for calm. Moqtada al-Sadr, the anti-American cleric whose militias were responsible for much of the instability in the last few years, ordered his supporters to respect the electoral commission’s work.
The preliminary final results confirm that the country remains fractured along sectarian lines, with few voters crossing religious and ethnic lines.
Mr. Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc was the only group to succeed in appealing to a broad array of voters.
The list dominated the Sunni sections of the country and also secured a large segment of seats from Baghdad, southern provinces like Babel and northern regions like Kirkuk, where the Kurds have long held sway.
The win catapults Mr. Allawi back to prominence after years in political wilderness here.
A scion of one of Iraq’s most famous political families, he was appointed prime minister in 2004 by the U.S. provisional authority that ran the country after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. In the 2005 election, Mr. Allawi’s party only won 25 seats in parliament, giving him little voice in national affairs.
This year, he succeeded in building a coalition of Sunni leaders and secular personalities. They appear to have capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with the religious figures who have dominated the previous parliament and their perceived failure to provide basic services.
In many provinces where Mr. Allawi’s Iraqiya slate secured the top number of seats, turnout was almost 15% higher than the Shiite south where Mr. Maliki’s list dominated.
Mr. Allawi also may have gained a bump of support from political machinations that occurred just ahead of the vote: The country’s de-Baathification commission disqualified hundreds of candidates for their alleged ties to the former party of Saddam Hussein. The commission, run by Shiite candidates running in the race, targeted many figures on Mr. Allawi’s list in a move that to many Iraqis smacked of a political dirty trick. Mr. Maliki supported the efforts by the commission.
Candidates on the Iraqiya list said they feared that in the period of contesting the vote results, the prime minister would try to decimate their ranks and cancel some of their votes by naming them Baathists-a party that is illegal under Iraqi law.
In his news conference, Mr. Maliki didn’t give specifics as to how he could challenge the vote totals. The Iraqi electoral commission handled approximately 2,000 complaints during the tally. Its head, Faraj Al Haydari, has said that there is no evidence to mandate a recount.
U.S. Ambassador Chris Hill and Gen. Ray Odierno released a statement Friday saying that they have confidence ’in the overall integrity of the election,’ and praised the electoral commission for its professionalism.
During the election campaign, Mr. Maliki’s party accused Mr. Allawi of taking funds from Arab Sunni governments and being a U.S. puppet. Mr. Allawi’s supporters accuse the prime minister of authoritarian tendencies.
A senior U.S. official said earlier this week that Washington would be able to do business with either Mr. Allawi or Mr. Maliki as the next prime minister.