By Heshmat Alavi ,
Forbs, Jan. 18, 2018 – Following the recent statement issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on the future of the Iran nuclear deal, technically dubbed as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the four conditions he raised on America’s continued cooperation with this already controversial pact, Tehran’s concerns are focusing on why the Europeans haven’t shown the regime’s desired negative response.
Washington’s conditions include increasing inspections, ensuring “Iran never even comes close to possessing a nuclear weapon,” eliminating all JCPOA expiration dates, and requiring Congress to adopt a bill incorporating Iran’s ballistic missile program into the pact.
Some time ago I explained “How Iran Is Losing Europe,” receiving a variety of messages of agreement and more of harsh disagreement. Regarding the new developments that fall into this line of argument, one can analyze the true feelings of those ruling the Iranian regime through their media outlets.
Tehran is extremely concerned that the U.S. government is reaching agreements with its European partners to stand their ground on these four conditions, leading to escalating restrictions for Iran.
The semi-official Khorasan daily expresses Tehran’s concerns over why the EU’s response refused to firmly reject Trump’s statement, describing the stance as “conservative.”
“Negotiating the existing JCPOA is not in their agenda. However, instead of emphasizing on their previous positions, all parties are now talking of analyzing and making decisions regarding Trump’s conditions,” the piece reads in this regard.
In a sign of the continuing internal factional dispute amongst Iran’s ruling factions, this article lashes at the bloc loyal to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
“The fact that [the Europeans] consider this subject as assessable is an issue we must take into consideration in our calculations, and we must not have high hopes in the Europeans,” the article adds.
There is increasing talk about the EU’s response to Trump’s statement and its conditions as a signal of Europe beginning an episode of increasing cooperation with the US in relation to the JCPOA, and similar agreements over Tehran’s slate of belligerences.
“It appears that [French President Emmanuelle] Macron has agreed with Trump to launch talks about Iran’s ballistic missile program in return for the U.S. remaining loyal to the JCPOA. Trump raising the issue of ballistic missile negotiations is without a doubt involving France and Europe into an already lost faceoff,” according to the semi-official KhabarOnline website.
For those unfamiliar with the language and culture of Iran’s state-backed media outlets, this is actually an indication of Tehran’s weakness and deep concerns, and not a signal of readiness for further talks.
Describing the U.S. President’s four demands as “Trump’s pseudo ultimatum to Europe on the JCPOA,” the semi-official Iranian Diplomacy website considers this stance as in line with the European Union and indicates its hope of the Green Continent having more influence on Washington for the unpredictable future.
“The recent remarks and stance heard from Trump and senior U.S. officials proves that behind the curtains the Europeans are playing an important role in convincing Trump to once again waive sanctions for another four months,” the text reads in part.
There are also voices heard inside Iran who have lost complete hope of Europe providing any life rope whatsoever to safeguard the JCPOA in the near future and beyond.
“The EU today is facing a variety of dilemmas and internal crises, lacking the necessary organization to stand against various decisions made by Washington, including in regards to the JCPOA,” reads a piece in the semi-official Khabar One website.
From Tehran’s perspective, the conditions set by Trump are completely unacceptable and a prelude to place pressure Europe to adopt a stronger position in regards to Iran’s ballistic missile program, meddling in the Middle East and stoking terrorism.
Speaking of Iran’s bellicosity, relations with Germany is witnessing a twist recently. Following an investigation by the country’s domestic intelligence agency, German authorities on Tuesday raided the homes and offices of 10 suspected Iranian spies, Reuters reported citing prosecutors.
Considering the recent protests rocking the very pillars of this regime and raising many eyebrows, Iran’s human rights dossier will most likely remain under a constant international spotlight that may actually become the most dangerous source of Tehran’s brewing troubles in the near future.
Washington, with Trump’s latest demands, will most likely seek to transform the JCPOA into a meaningless platform for Iran, and yet a medium to increase its pressures and conditions. With Europe left in a pickle to decide between Washington and Tehran, it doesn’t need a political or economic expert to comprehend how bleak the future looks for the Iranian regime.
This is exactly why Iran’s media outlets, known as a good source into the mentality of Iran’s ruling elite, consider the EU’s new soft approach vis-à-vis Trump’s statement a step in undermining the JCPOA altogether and imposing further obligations to degrade Iran’s positions, especially in the Middle East and for its already dwindling and dismal social base.
This is sensed vividly in the words of Abdolreza Faraji-rad, Iran’s former ambassador to Norway.
“Following his discussions with other European leaders, Macron is deciding to both maintain his policy of safeguarding the JCPOA while launching talks regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and this regime’s role in the region, all to gain U.S. content,” he explained in a radio interview.
Iran is entering troubled 2018 waters, especially with the wave of protests promising to gain strength across the country. How the West, and especially Europe, will respond to the Iranian people’s efforts to realize meaningful change and the regime’s human rights violations, is a major issue.
I am a political/rights activist focusing on Iran & the Middle East. I also write in Al Arabiya English, and contributed to The Federalist, The Hill and Raddington Report.
