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Addressing Iranian Weapons Smuggling and the Humanitarian Situation in Yemen

Reenergized and more-targeted maritime interdiction operations could reduce Iranian support for the Houthis while helping respond to Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.

 

Washington Institute, July 11, 2017 – For nearly ten months, the war in Yemen has periodically spilled into the Red Sea, degrading maritime security in the basin. To date, Houthi attacks have primarily targeted Saudi Arabia, the Emiratis, and those perceived by the rebels to be in the Saudi-led coalition, using anti-ship cruise missile attacks and explosive “drone boat” attacks. Sophisticated weapons wielded by non-state actors and increased mining activity increase the risk that the conflict could disrupt freedom of navigation and commerce through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab (BAM) Strait, an important energy waterway. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have suggested that seizure of Hodeida, Yemen’s most important shipping port, would cut off Houthi rebel access to the sea and mitigate this risk.

Meanwhile, the potential for a famine of significant proportions is building in Yemen. Coalition efforts thus far to constrain Houthi activities and Iranian weapons smuggling in the Red Sea and the BAM are perceived to be acting as more of a blockade — slowing the flow of food, medicine, and fuel into Yemen, and deterring some shippers from sending their vessels into Yemeni ports. Considering that Yemen imports 90 percent of its food, many experts warn that recapture of Hodeida would ultimately cut off what food is currently trickling into the beleaguered nation, tipping it fully into famine.
 
A reenergized and more targeted maritime interdiction operation (MIO) — one supported and facilitated by the United States through intelligence sharing, training, and coordination — could be used to disrupt Iranian weapons smuggling and increase the flow of food, medicine, and fuel into Yemen. Given the continuing conflict, the risk of famine, and the accelerating cholera outbreak — reported to have recently passed 300,000 suspected cases — both are urgent goals.

RECENT HOUTHI ATTACKS ON COALITION MARITIME TARGETS

Since the Yemen conflict began in March of 2015, Houthi rebels have attacked coalition or coalition-affiliated maritime targets four times (a UAE HSV-2 Swift in October 2016; the Al Madinah, a Saudi frigate in January 2017; a Yemeni coast guard ship in March 2017; and a seaside Saudi Aramco facility in April 2017), an American ship twice (both in October 2016), and other shipping twice more (June 2017). The United States responded to the attacks on its ships with a combination of diplomacy and calibrated military strikes against three radar facilities in Houthi-controlled territory. Since October, no further attacks have targeted U.S. ships.

 

ADVANTAGE OF MARITIME INTERDICTION OPERATIONS OVER A BLOCKADE

 

During MIOs, a naval force monitors access to waterways and interdicts specific ships, while allowing or even ensuring the free flow of legitimate maritime commerce. To execute MIO, naval forces build a network of surveillance, intelligence, and interdiction forces whose enforcement operations divert, disrupt, delay, or seize contraband items. Interdiction operations often compel a smuggling network to change and communicate about those changes, making it even more vulnerable to further disruption. The MIO efforts in the Arabian Gulf (1991-2003) demonstrated tangible effects.
 

In 2015, U.S. and Australian ships boarded the Nassir, a ship filled with antitank weapons systems sourced from Iran. In February 2016, the HMAS Darwin seized Iran-sourced weapons from a dhow — a small fishing vessel — headed toward Yemen. A month later, French and U.S. naval forces boarded dhows on separate occasions and found Iranian arms shipments bound for Yemen. These opportunistic interdictions suggest that a fully implemented MIO to halt arms transfers to Yemen could be productive.
 
A strengthened MIO offers an avenue to improve security in the Red Sea without risking U.S. boots on the ground. Similarly, nations hesitant to intervene directly will more likely be willing to enforce UN Security Council resolutions through MIO. In addition, transforming what is perceived to be a blockade into an interdiction operation and accelerating the flow of food could reduce key drivers of the conflict, while increasing the legitimacy of the coalition’s naval effort. Lastly, intelligence gained through interdiction of illegal arms shipments could more tightly link Iran to such arms shipments, providing the international community greater leverage when dealing with the Islamic Republic.

Nonetheless, as noted, sustainment of a traditional MIO effort is resource-intensive. From an outsider’s perspective, MIO can seem as simple as a police checkpoint, but it is much more complex. For example, Operation Iraqi Freedom’s maritime forces conducted 5,000 queries, carried out 2,600 boardings, and diverted 400 ships for searches. Effective MIOs require warships, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), coalition coordination, and training. The sheer size of the waterspace demands that maritime interdiction start with a heavy ISR down payment to establish a baseline. Potential arms smugglers are then monitored, boarded under international law, and searched. Intelligence gained through the ship searches is fed back into the system to make subsequent operations more effective. Given the number of ships required to sustain MIO, and that the operational cost for a frigate-sized ship can be upward of $1.3 million per month, the bill can be significant. Operation Atalanta, the EU effort to combat piracy in the Gulf of Aden, cost around $450 million in 2009.

There are also important force-protection risks to consider. When a potential smuggler is intercepted, it must be boarded and searched by a warship in close proximity. If the suspected vessel does not cooperate, boarding teams could face anything from passive measures to small arms and fire hoses. If a ship is seized, the “prize crew” of sailors taking it over could face an adversarial crew or a structurally unseaworthy ship.
 
Tragically, members of a U.S. Navy prize crew perished in 2001 when the decrepit ship they boarded sank. In addition, as smugglers tend to hug the coast, MIO efforts are likely to draw naval forces closer to shore, increasing the risks of Houthi-led or directed attacks using coastal-defense cruise missiles, mines, or unmanned explosive boats.

 

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