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Syria: Future of Bashar al-Assad is ‘mother of all issues’ but few optimistic of progress

Few are holding their breath over the forthcoming round of Syrian peace talks  in Geneva. Uncertainty about even the exact timing of the talks reflects the formidable barriers to ending the five-year-long war. Just maintaining the current patchy “cessation of hostilities” or getting aid into besieged areas would be significant achievements.
“The issue of Assad is paramount for everyone, ,” said one senior diplomat. And, as a western official admitted: “No one really knows what to do about the binary nature of the argument. So one answer is to carry on talking.”
De Mistura struck an ambitious note on Thursday before heading to the Middle East in the hope of finding a “critical mass” of support. “We have been talking about the general principles,” he said. “But the next round needs to be quite concrete in the direction of a process leading to a real beginning of a political transition.”
And Syrian opposition leaders have expressed grave doubts about the readiness of their western backers to press on the crucial issue of the Assad’s role.
“There is no international will, especially from the US side, and I do not expect anything to come of the negotiations,” is the blunt assessment of Riyad Hijab, coordinator for the rebels’ Higher Negotiation Committee (HNC), which enjoys strong Saudi backing.
The opposition has been alarmed by the growing convergence between Washington and Moscow since last autumn’s direct military intervention by Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s dramatic withdrawal of the bulk of its forces last month has been interpreted as a readiness to pressure Assad – though significant results have yet to be seen.
In the course of recent advances in the Aleppo area, rebel forces did not face Russian airstrikes in support of the Syrian army as they had done previously – possibly a signal from Moscow. But armed groups who met in Istanbul this week fear the HNC will be pressured into making concessions.
“There is a lot of pent-up anger and frustration that the cessation of hostilities deal is rigged against them,” said a well placed Syrian source. “Unless they get something concrete soon they will insist on a time limit for ending it. The next round of talks will be crucial because that’s when it will become clear if there is any traction or not. Hijab can stall but I don’t think he can sell what will be offered.”
Bashar Jaafari, the head of the Syrian team, was accused of time-wasting and filibustering to avoid substantive talks last month. Responses from Damascus to de Mistura’s questions included the demand that the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967, must be liberated – as if that were in the power of the UN.
The relatively good news is that the cessation of hostilities has lasted nearly six weeks, albeit with significant breaches that the UN insists on calling “instances of non-compliance”. The work of a US-Russian monitoring group is opaque.
But Assad has failed to allow aid deliveries to besieged areas such as Daraya, where severe food shortages are forcing some people to eat grass. “It is very dangerous to lose the momentum of humanitarian work,” said the UN aid coordinator Jan Egeland. “If the situation rapidly deteriorates in many areas at the same time it will affect the political process and the cessation of hostilities.”
Britain, the US and other western governments talk about the need to “habituate” both sides to the existence of a permanent UN negotiating forum – while admitting the prospects are poor. The risk, says an opposition source, is that Geneva becomes a process for the sake of process that will be detached from stark realities on the ground – while peace and stability for Syria remain distant hopes.


 


Source: The Guardian, April 8


 

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