Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Feb. 2, 2019 - With every passing day, the impacts of U.S. Sanctions on the Iranian regime become more and more evident in diverse areas, from oil to aviation. Meanwhile, Iran-Europe relations have not stayed intact either.
Last week, relations between the Iranian regime and Germany came under tension on two occasions. First, German authorities arrested an Iranian intelligence ministry spy, and second, Germany cancelled the license for Iranian "Mahan Air" flights.
Prior to that, the Iranian regime's relations with France and Britain faced problems due to Tehran's missile tests.
Given the uncertainty and mixed signals from Europe, the question is how and if the EU is going to aid the Iranian regime in circumventing or neutralizing U.S. sanctions.
Europe simply cannot neutralize U.S. sanctions. Albeit reluctantly, it will ultimately abide by the sanctions regime.
Why can't Europe simply fill the vacuum?
Since May, 8, 2018, when the US withdrew from Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran-Europe relations have deteriorated, not improved. This is not because of Europe's lack of interest. It has three firm reasons beyond Europe's control.
It is not Europe, it is the Iranian regime
The Iranian regime is incapable of abiding by any reasonable norms of conduct. It cannot abandon terrorism or missile development. Amidst Europe's efforts to find some way of helping Tehran circumvent US sanctions, Iranian terrorist plots were discovered in eight European countries (France, Germany, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Luxemburg and Albania.)
While the regime was busy with the mission impossible of creating explanations about these terrorist acts, German authorities arrested another Ministry of Intelligence spy in the German army. Working to resolve that crisis, "Mahan Airways" was caught transferring terrorists, arms and soldiers
U.S. is firmly behind the sanctions
The U.S. is seriously behind crippling sanctions against the Iranian regime with harsh punishments for non-abiders. A good part of trips, meetings, press conferences, statements, and even tweets of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, State Department Iran Action Group lead Brian Hook, National Security Advisor John Bolton and U.S. Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin are devoted to tightening the grip on the Mullahs' regime.
European companies differ from European governments
European companies are not abiding by and paying the price for their governments' policies of appeasement. They will not risk—let alone lose—their benefits in relation to the U.S., for an unstable regime that lacks any promising future. They take billion-dollar punishments as strong signs of "no go" for deals with the Iranian regime. Remember the case of Huawei, the Chinese communications giant that provided the regime with spying and bugging equipment. The Chinese company's financial director, the owner's daughter, arrested in Canada, faces the possibility of extradition to the U.S., where she can be sentenced to 30 years in prison.
No wonder more than 100 industrial giants have already left Iran.
Despair and disappointment on the regime's side
Majlis Research Center provided a report on the results and ramifications of the U.S. Sanctions. In the report, they said that by the end of the current Iranian year (21 March 2019), the country’s economic growth will drop to negative 5.5 percent and that the trend will continue in the following year due to the sanctions and the financial crisis.
Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, member of the Security Commission in Majlis, referred more directly to the dreams regime had counted on in relations with Europe:
"We all witnessed that contrary to their claims, the Europeans did not dare to activate their financial channels with the Islamic Republic."
“Being hopeful of the Europeans to do their JCPOA obligations is stupidity … Some say that after the U.S. left the JCPOA, Europeans will do something for us, while they drag their feet and will never do anything in our favor”
If there is one person in the regime who should say everything is fine and pretend to be optimistic that is Javad Zarif, the regime's foreign minister. He said on January 8, 2019:
"We will not wait for Europe. We will work with our traditional allies, like India, China, and Russia."
If he were to tell the truth, he should have written: "We cannot wait for Europe. However, we cannot work with our traditional allies, because of the same reasons we were not able to work with Europe.