Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Jun1, 2018 - Considering the series of defeats suffered by the Iran-linked Houthi militias in Yemen and the imminent victory of Yemeni forces, Tehran is now seeking to sit down and talk.
This comes especially as Yemeni forces are on the verge of retaking the strategic Al Hudaydah Port in the country’s western coastline. The Iranian regime uses this city to smuggle arms to the Houthis.
Iranian regime deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi says while Tehran rejects Washington’s demands of linking the nuclear dossier to Iran’s ballistic missile production and regional influence, they are now ready to discuss the issue of Yemen.
As Arab coalition forces are closing on Al Hudaydah and defeat seems imminent for Iran’s allies, talks over the situation in Yemen are a lost cause and Tehran is desperate attempt to maintain a portion of its interests as the situation on the ground looks completely disastrous.
The Iranian regime is also suffering setbacks in Syria and beginning to retreat its forces, reports indicate. Following the annihilation of Fort Al Yarmouk near Damascus, the Iranian regime claimed its forces will be heading south and militia units will be advancing towards Deraa Province.
This claim turned out to be completely void as Iran-backed forces are being forced to retreat from southern Syria. Iranian ambassador to Oman has said his country has never had, nor will have forces near Jordan and Israel.
These remarks reveal the deep impact of recent heavy blows the Iranian regime’s forces have suffered from bombings by Israel and Russia’s refusal to provide any support or defenses.
It is obvious how the Iranian regime, considering its known nature, respects the element of power far more than international agreements and laws.
As a result, Tehran would never be agreed to talks if the Houthis in Yemen had not suffered a series of defeats. Furthermore, Tehran would never agree to withdraw from positions near the borders of Jordan and Israel if Iran’s forces in Syria had not suffered major setbacks.
We should expect Iran resorting to a variety of setbacks, aiming to meet U.S. administration expectations, all aimed at decreasing economic sanctions and taking another look at the nuclear deal.
The Iranian regime will most likely rethink the expansion of its forces in Syria. Various outlets are reporting secret and indirect talks between Israel and the Iranian regime in Amman, in which the Iranian regime’s ambassador in Jordan has told the local Al Qad daily Tehran doesn’t seek war in southern Syria.
The Iranian regime aims to maintain Syria as its main strategic base in the region, making it capable of safeguarding its influence in Lebanon and Iraq and increase its negotiating ability against Israel and the United States.
To prevent a forthcoming catastrophe as U.S. sanctions against the Iranian regime begin to punch, Tehran needs to present such initiatives through the Oman Sultanate, Switzerland or other middle parties, such as France.
In Yemen, it is quite possible Iran will repeat its ceasefire demands while ultimately seeking a larger portion of the Houthis in the country’s future government and parliament. Tehran is also redoubling efforts in hope to maintain the Houthis’ heavy weaponry.
Of course, these two demands will most certainly be turned down by the Yemenis people and the Arab coalition.
Experience is showing a firm policy vis-à-vis must be adopted and maintained in order to make this regime abide by international standards and respect its neighbors’ sovereignty. Such an initiative will actually support the Iranian people in their struggle against this regime.