Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, June 22, 2019 - During a press conference last Monday, Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, declared the second step towards exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
“The countdown for crossing 300 kilograms of enriched uranium will begin and by June 27. We will pass this limit,” he emphasized.
The Islamic Republic’s latest threats, which some analysts describe as suicidal, come after the European Union ignored Iran’s 60-day ultimatum. The new ultimatum created a chorus of international condemnations, which in turn lead to widespread concerns among officials in Tehran.
State-run website Khabar 24 wrote that German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned the Iranian regime about the “consequences of violating the JCPOA” and quoted Merkel saying, “We predict that Iran will continue to respect the nuclear deal. If not, there will naturally be consequences.”
Mojnews, another state-run news agency, also quoted the German Chancellor saying, “Iran must abide by the nuclear deal.”
The Resalat newspaper quoted French President Emanuel Macron saying that Iran’s regime “must be patient and responsible about the JCPOA!”
“Earlier, in a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, the French President said, ‘France and the U.S. have common goals regarding preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and new international negotiations must start to achieve such a goal,” Resalat wrote.
The Fararu website also wrote that the U.S. President has recently said, “In order to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, he may take military action.”
Showing their concerns, the website further adds: “The important thing is that highlighting the military option by the U.S. comes simultaneously with Iran’s 60-day ultimatum to the remaining signatories of the nuclear deal. Some observers think it is unlikely that in the small remaining time window Europe will be able to do something that it failed to do over the past year. Therefore, it is likely that Iran will continue to gradually leave the JCPOA. The U.S. likes to change this calculation of Iran. In other words, the White House wants that Iran doesn’t resume enrichment without limitation.”
“The White House believes that America’s maximum pressure strategy against Iran doesn’t seriously need a military option. Washington politicians believe that their sanctions against Tehran will yield the result desired by the U.S. in the medium-term, without shooting a single bullet. However, this does not mean that the current situation will continue as it is. That is why Trump recently said: ‘We are very much ready for Iran. We’ll see what happens,’” Fararu concluded.
International reactions to Iran’s threat to leave the JCPOA unless INSTEX is implemented were so fast that Iranian political factions responded to the issue.
Ali Bigdeli, a political pundit close to the faction of Iranian regime President Hassan Rouhani said: “The statement of Behrouz Kamalvandi, [Iran’s] Atomic Energy Organization’s spokesperson, and the President [himself] means that we have entered a special situation. It means that while the European Union has not done anything special for us; it is not ready to let the state to distance itself from the JCPOA at all. We’ve also seen how the White House, France, Germany, and the UK reacted to [our] new approach.”
Bigdeli then asks whether “We are in a situation where we want to enrich uranium beyond the level that the JCPOA has provided or produce heavy water or such measures.”
“After the visit of the German Foreign Minister to Iran, all our expectations were negated. During the Munich Security Conference, the German Foreign Minister said to our Foreign Minister that they are ready to make INSTEX operational, provided that Iran implements three conditions,” he adds.
In addition to pundits close to Rouhani, institutions under the control of the Iranian regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have also warned about the suicidal nature of leaving the JCPOA.
Qudsonline writes: “By using the tools that they have in the JCPOA and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, the West is attempting to first dissuade Iran from leaving the JCPOA. In case of failure in this endeavor, they want to describe [Iran] in violation of the JCPOA through a media and political campaign and restore the six previous UN Security Council resolutions, and thus undermine the position of [Iran’s regime] on the international stage.”